Last poll, last push
Posted by African Press International on December 19, 2007
The last opinion poll ushered a renewed urgency among the “Big Three” to go for the kill, with each of them convinced they will win the General Election, due in a week’s time.But apart from this self-belief, each one of them also had something extra to cling on to — Mr Raila Odinga (ODM) was still in the lead in the last Steadman opinion poll, which put President Kibaki (PNU) a close second and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka (ODM-Kenya), a distant third.
Another poll by Gallup put President Kibaki a percentage point ahead of Raila, with Kalonzo again coming third. Exuding confidence at separate campaign rallies on Tuesday — the polls’ outcome notwithstanding — the line between reality and fantasy over exactly who had the more realistic chance of winning appeared to have blurred even further. This reluctance to acknowledge the outcome of the latest Steadman poll, evident even in the camp of leading candidate Raila, is borne out of suspicion and mistrust by the politicians for the pollsters.
Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement party has spoken of what it calls an elaborate mind game by the pollsters to “psychologically prepare the country for rigging”.
In a contest that has variously been described by the local media as a “statistical dead heat”, or better still, “too close to call”, ODM’s explanation for the few percentage points that has separated it with the incumbent is that when that rigging finally comes, it wouldn’t be a shocker.
Even the President’s own camp has been dismissive of the results, saying the outcome did not reflect the situation on the ground. Lately, the Party of National Unity (PNU) has, however, added a new spin to it all — that ODM was plotting to use the close poll to reject the results and cause chaos once beaten.
On his part, Kalonzo has always waved away the outcome of the surveys, which have consistently shown him trailing Raila and Kibaki.
On Tuesday, Raila, for the seventh time in a row, led the Steadman opinion polls at 45 per cent. President Kibaki was up second with 43 per cent, while Kalonzo’s rating stood at 10 per cent.
Going by this last poll, both Raila and Kibaki have met the constitutional requirement of 25 per cent in at least five provinces.
Raila is still popular in six of the eight provinces, with Kibaki just scrapping into the 25 per cent bracket in Western Province where he has the support of 26 per cent of those interviewed compared to Raila’s 68 per cent.
But a Gallup poll appeared to throw the spanner in the works for Raila, while handing Kibaki a new lifeline. The poll — also released on Tuesday — showed 44 per cent of registered voters intended to vote for President Kibaki, while 43 per cent said they would vote for Raila.
Kalonzo again trailed at 12 per cent of the vote.
The Gallup poll was conducted between December 5 and December 14, 2007. Gallup conducted its first pre-election poll with Nairobi-based Research Path Associates in late October and early November.
Consolidating votes
Buoyant on the campaign trail, Raila and a section of the Pentagon moved to consolidate its support in North Eastern and Northern Kenya with the declaration that the Orange party would leave no margin for error in its quest for victory.
“We are entering the climax of the campaigns and we are leaving no margin for error. We see victory within sight but you must come out with your vote and elect ODM on December 27,” Raila, who staged a three-pronged aerial campaign in Wajir North, while Pentagon members Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto went vote hunting in Wajir South and later in Marsabit town, said.
In Ukambani, where he returned for a “mop-up” exercise after several previous trips to the lower Eastern region, Kibaki also exuded confidence of wining the December 27 General Election saying he had traversed the country and that Kenyans had resolved to re-elect him.
“Tumetembea kote nchini na tumeona kura zimetosha (we have gone round the country and we have seen there are enough votes out there),” the President, who continued to dish out election goodies, said.
On request, he upgraded Mtito Andei Health Centre in Kibwezi District to a sub-district hospital moments after he officially opened the facility.
His eyes also firmly set on the top prize, Kalonzo accused people he described as enemies of the party of peddling rumours that he had visited President Kibaki at State House, Nairobi.
The outgoing Mwingi North MP said those peddling the rumours were out to confuse his supporters that he had a secret agenda with the incumbent.
“I have no business meeting President Kibaki because I want to replace him at State House,” Kalonzo said while campaigning at Nyangweta Primary School grounds in South Mugirango Constituency.
Having dug in for the final onslaught, the three camps refused to entertain any illusions of failure at the ballot.
Four key pollsters had, on December 8, showed Raila leading the pack. Steadman put Raila in the lead at 46 per cent followed by Kibaki at 42 per cent and Kalonzo at 10 per cent.
Consumer Insight put Raila at 43 per cent followed by Kibaki at 39 per cent and Kalonzo at 15 per cent.
Infotrak Harris put the ODM candidate at 43.7 per cent followed by the President at 39.2 per cent with Kalonzo coming third at 15.2 per cent.
Strategic Research findings put Raila at 43 per cent with Kibaki following at 39 per cent and ODM Kenya candidate at 17 per cent.
Raila also led in six out of the eight provinces with Kibaki heading the pack in only Central and Eastern provinces.
Reactions
Moments after the last Steadman poll was released, PNU hardliners and chief Kibaki allies Mr Mutahi Kagwe and Mr Maina Kamanda told The Standard that the outcome of opinion polls was no longer of any consequence as, whichever way, “the margin of error means the top two were 10 points apart”.
“If one of the candidates was at 10 per cent and another at 50 per cent, then that would be significant. The truth therefore is that Kibaki is winning and the same will be proven during the election,” Kagwe, the Information minister, said.
Kamanda, his Sports counterpart, weighed in: “The results simply mean that the we are set and Kenyans have finally differentiated between rhetoric and real change. We are confident of winning”.
Their Cabinet colleague, Mr Njeru Ndwiga, had this to say: “The real polls will be on December 27. The Steadman poll and everything that comes with it is meaningless at this point. It is basically hot air and touting.”
But a more discerning and skeptical Ruto, who is being lined up for the premiership should ODM win the elections, said when reached for comment: “The other pollsters show a 10-point lead… Steadman should explain its reasons for the slim difference”.
The former Eldoret North MP went on to charge that Steadman “has always played with figures and put Kibaki ahead of Raila”.
Seemingly more optimistic, Mudavadi asserted: “Even with that small margin, ODM will lock out Kibaki from acquiring the mandatory 25 per cent in five provinces as required by the constitution”.
He added: “Do not look at Steadman as a barometer but come out like ants on the voting day and silence Steadman and PNU once and for all”.
Mudavadi, who’s Raila’s second in command and VP-in-waiting should ODM win the elections, promised that the party would mount the best of its campaigns beginning today with rallies in Homa-Bay, parts of Rift Valley and peak at Suswa for a declaration in Narok.
Kalonzo read from the same script, saying Steadman pollsters had stopped being objective a long time ago.
Lifted and published by Korir, API/APN africanpress@chello.no source.standard.ke
