With President Kibaki�s victory fiercely challenged, the battle expected in Parliament adds a new dimension to his desire to win the confidence test.

The ODM-PNU understanding on government formation having fallen flat the test on the floor will not be a mere formality.

The House is unlikely to settle for a voice vote and the parties are likely to press for a division to determine who becomes the Speaker.

Installing a Speaker of either party�s choice will not be easy.

Each of the strong parties, the PNU and ODM is gearing up to use the delicate balance of numbers to push its own nominee into the chair.

ODM has said it is backing Emuhaya MP-elect, Mr Kenneth Marende, for the post and Lagdera MP-elect, Mr Farah Maalim, as his deputy.

The PNU and ODM-Kenya are jointly backing Mr Francis ole Kaparo.

To be elected Speaker, one must garner support of two-thirds of “all the members of the House.”

If no candidate is supported by the votes of two-thirds of all the members, a further ballot is held.

If, in the second ballot no candidate gets the mandatory two-thirds support, the candidate who has received the highest number of votes will remain in the contest with the one who came second.

That will usher in a third ballot and here, the person who receives the highest number of votes will be the Speaker.

Stakes are high for both sides. The election of the Speaker presents the first unity and leadership test for ODM, which is counting on its numerical strength.

Inside ODM, the rallying call is “unity and block vote”. The party wants to capture the Speaker and Deputy Speaker�s seats.

The chaotic parliamentary nominations saw some known and debutants land ODM tickets. Most of them have ended up in the House. With their ideological leanings and capacity for principled politics unknown, the Tuesday vote will test whether all the ODM MPs will remain loyal to the party, power having gone to the other side.

When the party met early last week at Maasai Lodge, facilitators emphasised to MPs-elect the need to stay together, at least on the election of the Speaker.

“The party does not have the numbers as such, and it was strongly advised that MPs-elect work as a team and deliver a solid block vote. The party also agreed that it would reach out to other parties to help cement victory. ODM was told to invest heavily on the speakership,” a source at the Maasai Lodge meeting said.

While ODM is said to be taking seriously the need to capture the two seats in the House, PNU is said to be doing the same.

Sources say the Government side is trying to woo some ODM MPs into supporting outgoing Speaker Mr Francis ole Kaparo.

The old style of bribery and MPs-for-hire may resurface early as parties give their all to take the seat.

As was the case in last month�s General Election, there was talk of possibilities of PNU fielding candidates for the seat who may appear independent but would actually be friendly to the Government side once the seat is delivered.

Stakes are so high that there were fears the Government side planned to block “by whatever means,” some ODM MPs from being in the House on Tuesday when the Speaker would be picked.

Even with the support of friendly parties, PNU still has fewer MPs than ODM.

In a Parliament where the battle to block and even bring each other down is widely expected, the Government badly needs a conservative Speaker who will interpret rules in its favour or turn a blind eye when House rules are broken.

That is how Kibaki survived through the Ninth Parliament where he poached MPs from all parties and blurred the line between Opposition and Government.

In a multi-party Parliament that recognised at least four parties, even Kaparo was at a loss where the Government side ended and Opposition began. It is a situation he had powers to rule on and set precedent but he did not.

The Government took over all House committees, including critical ones like the Public Accounts Committee and the Public Investments Committee.

When Mr Raila Odinga asked Kaparo to rule on the composition of the House Business Committee, especially wanting to know whether Ford-People was in Government, the Speaker threw the question back to then Ford-People MP, Mr Henry Obwocha.

Obwocha said: “Ford-People is not dead. Some party members are still in the opposition, like Omingo Magara.”

Confusing scenario

Magara, the Ford-People MP Obwocha was referring to, no longer recognised the party that took him to Parliament then. He identified more with the Liberal Democratic Party. When Kaparo asked Obwocha for Ford-People�s official position, Obwocha said it was in Opposition but supported the Government.

The legality of the composition of the Ninth Parliament was in question since 2004, when then Subukia MP, Mr Koigi wa Wamwere and his then Kibwezi counterpart, Mr Kalembe Ndile, took the Government to court over Kibaki�s new-look Cabinet. At the time, some Kanu and Ford-People MPs had been appointed to the Cabinet.

The two MPs argued that the President had no powers under the Constitution to appoint opposition MPs to the Cabinet.

In April 2005, Kanu chairman Mr Uhuru Kenyatta wrote to the Speaker of the National Assembly, saying the appointment of Kanu MPs to the Government was illegal.

Uhuru said the President needed the permission of the MPs� parent party, Kanu, to appoint them to Government.

Uhuru cited clauses in the Constitution and the National Assembly and Presidential Elections Act to support his case.

“We need to have a means of ensuring those who abandon their parties are forced to seek fresh mandate from voters because they have abandoned the ideals of the party that brought them to Parliament,” Uhuru said.

A 1966 law decreed that a Member of Parliament who leaves his party and joins another must seek fresh mandate from voters. In the Ninth Parliament, MPs changed parties liberally.

But Kaparo took the position that an MP has not abandoned electing party until the chair is informed in writing.

A more liberal interpretation would have seen many seats declared vacant in the Ninth Parliament.

Towards the end of its mandate, the Ninth Parliament passed a law barring the president from including none members of his party into government without written permission from the party.

Gazette the law

Although the president assented to the Bill, making it a law, the government is yet to gazette the commencement date. The fear is that with his fewer MPs in the House, President Kibaki may resort to poaching to survive.

When it comes to that, the stand of the Speaker will be critical.

In a House that promises to be acrimonious, issues like when Parliament sits or adjourns will be critical. There will be calls for adjournment for the House to discuss “matters of urgent national importance.” How that goes will depend on who becomes the Speaker.

The Speaker will also be critical on Motions of Amendment, withdrawal of Motions, and introduction of Bills, among others.

The Tenth Parliament is sure to witness an attempt to introduce a vote of no confidence against the Government. When it comes to that, the orientation of the Speaker will be critical.

Away from the battle for the Speaker�s post, the composition of House committees will be a source of another tough contest. In the Ninth Parliament, the Government survived by packing all critical committees of the House with its loyalists.

That took away the sting from watchdog committees like the Public Accounts Committee and Public Investment Committee.

In the heydays of opposition politics, PAC and PIC were critical in unearthing the scope of official corruption.

The sting is bound to return when key leaders led by Raila, MPs-elect James Orengo, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Musalia Mudavadi, among others, take roles in these committees. PNU will want to determine who sits in the critical committees.

PAC and PIC aside, there is also the House Business Committee and the Committee on Justice and Constitutional Affairs, which was chaired by Safina leader, Mr Paul Muite.

HBC determines what Motions come to the floor while justice committee could be critical because matters to do with the Constitution are likely to feature prominently in the Tenth Parliament.

With these stakes, each side of the House is keen to determine who gets the Speaker�s job. For ODM, it is the first test of unity in the party. For PNU it is a test for ability to craft survival deals.

Lifted and published by Korir, API/APN africanpress@chello.no source.standard.ke

The numbers game in the National Assembly gets crucial, with battle brewing over the post of Speaker, as Parliament becomes the next, but apparently not the last battlefront in the post-election power struggle.

With President Kibaki�s victory fiercely challenged, the battle expected in Parliament adds a new dimension to his desire to win the confidence test.

The ODM-PNU understanding on government formation having fallen flat the test on the floor will not be a mere formality.

The House is unlikely to settle for a voice vote and the parties are likely to press for a division to determine who becomes the Speaker.

Installing a Speaker of either party�s choice will not be easy.

Each of the strong parties, the PNU and ODM is gearing up to use the delicate balance of numbers to push its own nominee into the chair.

ODM has said it is backing Emuhaya MP-elect, Mr Kenneth Marende, for the post and Lagdera MP-elect, Mr Farah Maalim, as his deputy.

The PNU and ODM-Kenya are jointly backing Mr Francis ole Kaparo.

To be elected Speaker, one must garner support of two-thirds of “all the members of the House.”

If no candidate is supported by the votes of two-thirds of all the members, a further ballot is held.

If, in the second ballot no candidate gets the mandatory two-thirds support, the candidate who has received the highest number of votes will remain in the contest with the one who came second.

That will usher in a third ballot and here, the person who receives the highest number of votes will be the Speaker.

Stakes are high for both sides. The election of the Speaker presents the first unity and leadership test for ODM, which is counting on its numerical strength.

Inside ODM, the rallying call is “unity and block vote”. The party wants to capture the Speaker and Deputy Speaker�s seats.

The chaotic parliamentary nominations saw some known and debutants land ODM tickets. Most of them have ended up in the House. With their ideological leanings and capacity for principled politics unknown, the Tuesday vote will test whether all the ODM MPs will remain loyal to the party, power having gone to the other side.

When the party met early last week at Maasai Lodge, facilitators emphasised to MPs-elect the need to stay together, at least on the election of the Speaker.

“The party does not have the numbers as such, and it was strongly advised that MPs-elect work as a team and deliver a solid block vote. The party also agreed that it would reach out to other parties to help cement victory. ODM was told to invest heavily on the speakership,” a source at the Maasai Lodge meeting said.

While ODM is said to be taking seriously the need to capture the two seats in the House, PNU is said to be doing the same.

Sources say the Government side is trying to woo some ODM MPs into supporting outgoing Speaker Mr Francis ole Kaparo.

The old style of bribery and MPs-for-hire may resurface early as parties give their all to take the seat.

As was the case in last month�s General Election, there was talk of possibilities of PNU fielding candidates for the seat who may appear independent but would actually be friendly to the Government side once the seat is delivered.

Stakes are so high that there were fears the Government side planned to block “by whatever means,” some ODM MPs from being in the House on Tuesday when the Speaker would be picked.

Even with the support of friendly parties, PNU still has fewer MPs than ODM.

In a Parliament where the battle to block and even bring each other down is widely expected, the Government badly needs a conservative Speaker who will interpret rules in its favour or turn a blind eye when House rules are broken.

That is how Kibaki survived through the Ninth Parliament where he poached MPs from all parties and blurred the line between Opposition and Government.

In a multi-party Parliament that recognised at least four parties, even Kaparo was at a loss where the Government side ended and Opposition began. It is a situation he had powers to rule on and set precedent but he did not.

The Government took over all House committees, including critical ones like the Public Accounts Committee and the Public Investments Committee.

When Mr Raila Odinga asked Kaparo to rule on the composition of the House Business Committee, especially wanting to know whether Ford-People was in Government, the Speaker threw the question back to then Ford-People MP, Mr Henry Obwocha.

Obwocha said: “Ford-People is not dead. Some party members are still in the opposition, like Omingo Magara.”

Confusing scenario

Magara, the Ford-People MP Obwocha was referring to, no longer recognised the party that took him to Parliament then. He identified more with the Liberal Democratic Party. When Kaparo asked Obwocha for Ford-People�s official position, Obwocha said it was in Opposition but supported the Government.

The legality of the composition of the Ninth Parliament was in question since 2004, when then Subukia MP, Mr Koigi wa Wamwere and his then Kibwezi counterpart, Mr Kalembe Ndile, took the Government to court over Kibaki�s new-look Cabinet. At the time, some Kanu and Ford-People MPs had been appointed to the Cabinet.

The two MPs argued that the President had no powers under the Constitution to appoint opposition MPs to the Cabinet.

In April 2005, Kanu chairman Mr Uhuru Kenyatta wrote to the Speaker of the National Assembly, saying the appointment of Kanu MPs to the Government was illegal.

Uhuru said the President needed the permission of the MPs� parent party, Kanu, to appoint them to Government.

Uhuru cited clauses in the Constitution and the National Assembly and Presidential Elections Act to support his case.

“We need to have a means of ensuring those who abandon their parties are forced to seek fresh mandate from voters because they have abandoned the ideals of the party that brought them to Parliament,” Uhuru said.

A 1966 law decreed that a Member of Parliament who leaves his party and joins another must seek fresh mandate from voters. In the Ninth Parliament, MPs changed parties liberally.

But Kaparo took the position that an MP has not abandoned electing party until the chair is informed in writing.

A more liberal interpretation would have seen many seats declared vacant in the Ninth Parliament.

Towards the end of its mandate, the Ninth Parliament passed a law barring the president from including none members of his party into government without written permission from the party.

Gazette the law

Although the president assented to the Bill, making it a law, the government is yet to gazette the commencement date. The fear is that with his fewer MPs in the House, President Kibaki may resort to poaching to survive.

When it comes to that, the stand of the Speaker will be critical.

In a House that promises to be acrimonious, issues like when Parliament sits or adjourns will be critical. There will be calls for adjournment for the House to discuss “matters of urgent national importance.” How that goes will depend on who becomes the Speaker.

The Speaker will also be critical on Motions of Amendment, withdrawal of Motions, and introduction of Bills, among others.

The Tenth Parliament is sure to witness an attempt to introduce a vote of no confidence against the Government. When it comes to that, the orientation of the Speaker will be critical.

Away from the battle for the Speaker�s post, the composition of House committees will be a source of another tough contest. In the Ninth Parliament, the Government survived by packing all critical committees of the House with its loyalists.

That took away the sting from watchdog committees like the Public Accounts Committee and Public Investment Committee.

In the heydays of opposition politics, PAC and PIC were critical in unearthing the scope of official corruption.

The sting is bound to return when key leaders led by Raila, MPs-elect James Orengo, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Musalia Mudavadi, among others, take roles in these committees. PNU will want to determine who sits in the critical committees.

PAC and PIC aside, there is also the House Business Committee and the Committee on Justice and Constitutional Affairs, which was chaired by Safina leader, Mr Paul Muite.

HBC determines what Motions come to the floor while justice committee could be critical because matters to do with the Constitution are likely to feature prominently in the Tenth Parliament.

With these stakes, each side of the House is keen to determine who gets the Speaker�s job. For ODM, it is the first test of unity in the party. For PNU it is a test for ability to craft survival deals.

Lifted and published by Korir, API/APN africanpress@chello.no source.standard.ke

Fierce infighting has ensued within ODM-Kenya over allocation of Cabinet posts and the single nomination slot.

This is after the party formed a coalition with PNU, and its leader Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, was appointed Vice-President. A top official from the Coast has resigned from the party while some MPs-elect may opt to side with ODM in Parliament to fight the Government.

With only 16 MPs-elect, the party is fighting for five full Cabinet positions and eight other assistant ministerial positions.

Two slots have gone with Kalonzo and the chairman, Mr Samuel Poghisio.

The remaining 15 Cabinet positions already dished out by the President have gone to PNU.

ODM-Kenya MPs-elect eying Cabinet positions include Mr David Musila, Mr Mutula Kilonzo, Mr Kiema Kilonzo and Mr Gideon Ndambuki. Sources say Kiema, who has always been close to Kalonzo and is jokingly referred to as the �bodyguard� by party colleagues, deserves a ministerial post.

Another one who has fought for Kalonzo when he was in a dilemma and is said to deserve a ministerial post is Ndambuki.

The single nomination slot has also brought frictions, threatening to alienate the party from some regions, which feel deserving.

The slot is to go to North Eastern Province with former ambassador to Somalia, Mr Mohammed Affey, being the beneficiary, a party source said.

ODM-Kenya Coast point men, former Bahari MP Mr Joe Khamisi, former Malindi MP Mr Lucas Maitha and the region�s co-ordinator and financier, Mr Abu Ahmed Taib, are some of the casualties in the nomination struggle.

Abu, sources within the party say, has resigned and opted to work with ODM. He is said to have taken with him some ODM-Kenya Muslim supporters and financiers.

Abu has been Kalonzo�s friend since childhood and they fondly refer to each other as “brother”.

He had also played a significant role for Kalonzo during the 2005 Liberal Democratic Party grassroots polls, pitting the new Vice-President against Mr Raila Odinga.

Another person who had expected to be nominated is Mr Daniel Maanzo. He is now out in the cold, with a only a party certificate to hold.

He is said not be happy as he was also promised a nomination.

Sources within ODM-Kenya say that Kalonzo had preferred his running mate during the General Election Dr Julia Ojiambo. Ojiambo would be the only woman MP in the party if she would be nominated.

“But this seems complicated because of the Muslim factor,” the sources told The Sunday Standard.

But some at the Coast feel that Affey would not effectively represent the Muslim factor as in North Eastern it is more a clan issue when it comes to choosing their leaders.

The nomination committee, whose ball is now in its court, was to sit again yesterday to deliberate on the issue.

Among the members of the nomination committee are Poghisio, Hussein Sasura, Kiema Kilonzo and David Muthama. Sources say the choice will be between Affey and Abu.

Sources claim that the team had been favouring Affey.

There has also been disquiet within the party, following a meeting between PNU members and Kalonzo at Windsor Hotel, Nairobi, recently, where the coalition deal was struck.

“Kalonzo went alone. Not a single ODM-Kenya MP attended the meeting,” a party source told The Sunday Standard.

Kalonzo�s “lone-ranger” move to strike a deal with President Kibaki has also angered other smaller parties, whose MPs claimed recently they would rather work with ODM.

Lifted and published by Korir, API/APN africanpress@chello.no source.standard.ke