Kenya today enters what could be the historic week in which the power sharing deal President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga signed could be homed in the Constitution.

It could be the turning point in the history of the nation as Kibaki and Raila, their differences and clashing character aside, begin working together, again.

The nation waits, albeit with baited breath, but with faces radiating optimism, for the State opening of Parliament on Thursday.

After the ritualistic practice presided over by the President it is expected that an adjournment will follow. But when next week the House resumes, the business on the table could be the proposed draft Act on power sharing and the creation of the office of the Prime Minister and two deputies.

Already, there are indications the cardinal rules on the normal order of business may be sidestepped to allow for speedy conclusion of the proposed Act that has captured the imagination of the nation.

The week opens with the accomplished Ghana-born former UN secretary general Dr Kofi Annan expected to jet out this evening, satisfied the momentum and commitment is at the level he wants.

“But I will never be far away and can return on short notice if I’m needed. And, as I told you, I will be looking in on the talks from time to time. In my absence, the day to day work of the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation will be overseen by Chief Mediator Oluyemi Adeniji,” Annan said, on Saturday.

The signal that both sides have the gas pedal on the floor came through Vice- President Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila on Saturday when they announced the two groups will hold separate Parliamentary Group meetings ahead of the Thursday State opening of the House.

The President’s Party of National Unity, which has a coalition arrangement with Mr Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya, holds its PG tomorrow. Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement meets on Wednesday.

The agenda for both sides will be the forging of a common stand on the proposed National Reconciliation Act 2008, which is an offshoot of the deal Raila and Kibaki signed.

“ODM will be holding a PG on Wednesday where they will formally take a common stand on the accord,” Raila said on Saturday, after meeting Annan.

“There was a lot of give and take. We will meet on Monday (tomorrow) to plead with our members to walk the spirit of the agreement,” Kalonzo said.

With Annan’s temporary exit, the task of moving on the negotiations shifts to the Nigerian diplomat Ambassador Oluyemi Adeniji.

Annan leaves for Geneva, Switzerland, with a stopover in Kampala, where he will chair an international meeting. Former Tanzanian President, Mr William Mkapa left on Saturday – another indicator the peace ship has crossed the turbulent stretch and it could now be smooth-sail.

“I hope I will not come back in similar circumstances. I pray that Kenyans live together in peace like brothers and sisters,” Mkapa said, on the way to the airport.

With the signs it is just a matter of time before Kibaki and Raila become the pilot and co-pilot of aircraft Kenya, attention is now shifting to two former friends-turned- foes.

It is slightly over five years after necessity pushed them into a historic union that changed the politics of Kenya and defeated Kanu before parting ways in 2005.

The one-time liberation comrades when the nation cried for unity to defeat Kanu began to fall out soon after they took power in 2003, mainly over dishonoured Memorandum of Understanding.

Vowed to travel together

The falling out led to the collapse of the National Rainbow Coalition, which brought them to power, spilt over into the search for a new constitution.

President Kibaki, whose 2002 victory is credited to Raila’s mobilisation forte, went ahead to fire the latter after the 2005 referendum. It eventually put the two in separate parties that fought a bitter election battle last year, which ended with the deadliest political rivalry in Kenya.

Last week, what looks like fate and destiny put them together again, making them promise to travel together through their clash-stricken country to restore sanity and amity among the people.

That journey will begin in real, concrete terms if Parliament, which convenes this week, ratifies the agreements the two leaders agreed on Thursday.

Unlike in 2002 when removing Kanu from power was seen to be good enough, Raila, Prime Minister-designate, and Kibaki, the President, have a daunting task.

Despite their differences in style, political experience and views on what really ails Kenya, Kibaki and Raila have the gargantuan task of overhauling the Kenyan State as was inherited from the Founding Fathers – Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and retired President Moi.

The deal Raila and Kibaki signed last week, charges them with joint responsibility on issues they have viewed differently.

It charges both to preside over the overhaul of the Kenyatta State, which President Kibaki was seen to be reproducing and the Moi structures, which he fought briefly then embraced for political survival.

For Raila, it is a moment to dismantle what he has always wanted to; the leftovers of Kenyatta and Moi States, which he says have been characterised by gross inequalities and concentration of power and public resources, especially land, in the hands of a power elite. These are views for which he spent long years in detention, fighting.

For a nation bogged down by about two months of election violence that followed from about a year of intense campaigns, the image of the two men clasping hands, stilled passions and may encourage the spread of peace.

Raila and Kibaki, despite radical differences in their political worldviews, cut the image of the last of the fading generation of politicians who still have some sense of ideology in politics.

A look into their politics over the years reveals an impression that Kibaki appears to believe that the way out of the problems that bedevil Kenya lies in the economy.

For Kibaki, from his early days in the Cabinet, through his days as DP chairman, all the way to his first term as president, he appears to believe that a strong and growing economy would heal the wounds and rifts in Kenya.

On the other hand, Raila’s journey in politics leaves behind a strong impression that he believes the country’s problems begin with the Constitution and its governance structures.

Raila appears to believe that however much the economy grows, if the country does not have a constitution and governance structures that define equal access to wealth and how power is used, national challenges will persist.

Those differences were seen during the recent campaigns. Kibaki, in his party’s manifesto, gave prominence to the revival of the economy as achieved between 2003 and 2005, and how he intended to sustain it.

Kibaki’s party manifesto did not mention review of the constitution. Instead, it said Kenyans elected his government in 2002 on the promise to revive the economy, create jobs and wealth, expand the democratic space, fight corruption, and reform public service.

He concluded, “My administration has delivered on these promises and exceeded people’s expectations in many areas.”

Their differences

Fate has brought Kibaki and Raila together to heal the nation over 40 years after the falling out between Kenyatta and Odinga.

In contrast, Raila’s campaign manifesto began with the promise of a new constitution. His party said it would guarantee a new constitution within six months to ensure equity, executive accountability and devolution of power.

Raila also promised a parliamentary system of government “where power will be shared and not concentrated in one person or office.”

Those are just a few of the differences the two will have to integrate as they begin work in a new coalition.

The Grand Coalition Government the two have signed themselves into requires them to secure sustainable peace, stability and justice for all Kenyans through the rule of law, respect for human rights and gender equity.

They will also be required to address historical injustices, past cases of impunity, and secure national healing and reconciliation.

Fate and destiny of the nation have brought President Kibaki and PM-designate Raila to go back to the promise they made to Kenyans in 2002 and differed fundamentally over when they formed the Government in 2003, before falling out. It is the promise of a new constitution.

One of the objects of the Grand Coalition Government is to undertake and complete a comprehensive review of the Constitution, within 12 months.

In 2002, the two campaigned on the platform of a new constitution, which was to be delivered within 100 days of coming to power.

As soon as the Narc coalition took power, the two never saw face to face on the need for a new constitution and what it should contain.

Prof Yash Pal Ghai, the former Constitution of Kenya Review Commission chairman, has since the collapse of the process blamed Kibaki and his allies, for the failure to get a new constitution.

When Narc came to power, Ghai has argued, the shift in power from then President Moi to Kibaki came with a shift in attitudes.

“President Kibaki began to oppose the draft he had so enthusiastically supported. His minister for Justice (Mr Kiraitu Murungi then), well known for his advocacy of democracy and human rights in the past, led the move to sabotage the constitution,” Ghai argued in an article on the Kenyan process, published last year.

According to Ghai, part of the reason the old guard was not keen on a new constitution was that it embodied “a scheme for truth and justice investigation and punishment for past violations of human rights and past activities.”

There was also little enthusiasm for curbing the president’s powers and limiting the age of a president. Kibaki was 71 when he took office.

Powerful PM post

Kibaki’s team, Ghai says, were particularly concerned that a parliamentary system would lead to “a powerful role for the most charismatic politician –Raila Odinga.”

Ghai admits that he did not know how far these were President Kibaki’s personal concerns or how far they were views of “his surrounding coterie” who perhaps “found it easy to exercise influence on (then) ailing man.”

The Grand coalition has put Raila and Kibaki together to do just what was postponed or what was feared. They have to investigate past crimes and punish them through a new constitution.

Raila has pledged that his urgent task as PM will be to help those who had been displaced, robbed of property or lost their jobs during the violence in which more than 1,000 people died.

While some of those displaced question whether ethnic hatreds can be healed, Raila has also pledged to reconcile Kenyans, after the violence took on an ethnic dimension.

Breaker: Raila and President Kibaki come with a heavy sense of history and have an immense capacity both to divide and unite Kenya

Raila and Kibaki come with a heavy sense of history and have an immense capacity both to divide and unite Kenya, depending on how they play their cards.

Raila is a son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Kenya’s first Vice-President, who refused to take over power at independence unless the colonialists released Jomo Kenyatta to lead.

Kenyatta and Odinga fell out three years later, leading to a rift between the ethnic groups of the two leaders. The rift deepened in 1969, with the assassination of then planning minister Tom Mboya.

History appeared to be repeating itself in 2002 when Raila put his presidential ambitions aside and endorsed Kibaki for the presidency.

The falling out that followed immediately after re-opened the wounds between the two communities that were thought to have healed with the historic unity of 2002.

Fate has brought Kibaki and Raila together to heal the nation over 40 years after the falling out between Kenyatta and Odinga.

The two have to address the question of land ownership, one thing that put a wedge between Kenyatta and Jaramogi and which has snowballed into a national crisis.

The two are to institute a government that reflects the ethnic diversity of Kenya, tackle corruption, institute fair and equal distribution of national resources and to always “act in the spirit of nationhood.”

The two are to re-establish the offices and systems the founding fathers of the nation clashed over and abolished, like that of the PM and a parliamentary system.

On Saturday, Raila said the agreement was “just a piece of paper” the most important thing is the will behind it.

“There has be to be trust and confidence developed on both sides. It is important for us to forge a firm foundation for a united country,” Raila told the BBC.

Published by Korir, API africanpress@getmail.no source.standard.ke

Kenyans will be counting on the Grand Coalition Government, that circumstances have forced on them, to do a delicate balancing act to watch over itself.

One of the first casualties in such grand coalition governments is the Opposition.

In a properly constituted grand coalition, government, departments are divided into levels according to their perceived significance to ease the process of sharing.

With assistance from their team of legal experts Attorney General Mr Amos Wako, for President Kibaki, and Mr James Orengo for Mr Raila Odinga, the two political giants sign an agreement for a coalition government.

Departments like Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Provincial Administration, Education and Health among others are supposed to be shared equally between the governing parties.In Parliament, the party that produces the Minister for Foreign Affairs is not expected to produce the chairperson of the Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Relations. The party that takes the Defence ministry is not expected to produce the chair of the Parliamentary Defence committee.

That, according to German ambassador, Mr Walter Lindner, is for purposes of check and balance.

The Grand Coalition Government made up of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga will have to agree on whether the party that produces the minister in one ministry should have its appointees fill all the positions in that ministry or whether the departments should be shared among parties.

The fear is that if one ministry is filled with appointees from all the coalition parties, the party that takes the ministerial portfolio may use that to shut out and frustrate deputies and junior staff posted by coalition partners.

In Germany, Lindner says, the parties agreed that the one that takes one ministry fills all its positions.

“We foresaw a situation where a minister from one party would be uneasy working with a deputy from another,” the ambassador said.

Germany’s biggest political parties, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, joined hands with the Social Democratic Party and Christian Democrats in November 2005, making Merkel the country’s first female chancellor.

She later called it “a coalition of new possibilities”.

“We want to make more of Germany and we, the two big parties, want, with these policies to win back people’s trust in the ability of politicians … and show that we can do something for our country. I think this could be a coalition of new possibilities,” she was quoted saying.

The 2005 deal was only the second “grand coalition” in German history.

After 39 years of opposing each other, Merkel declared, SPD, CDU and CSU wanted to move Germany forward in joint responsibility.

The two sides were bitter opponents before Germany’s September 18, 2005 election, which gave neither a majority to govern with its preferred smaller partner.

Merkel’s party emerged only just ahead of the Social Democrats — setting the scene for a three-week power struggle in which both she and then Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder claimed the right to lead the new government.

In an October 10 deal, Schroeder gave way, but the Social Democrats, his party, extracted equal representation in Merkel’s Cabinet and key ministries such as foreign affairs and finance.

Land reforms

“It is never easy, but you have it because you have to. Germany needed to reform its pension and social welfare system. Kenya is bogged down by need for constitutional and land reforms,” Lindner said.

According to the German ambassador, whose country currently runs on a similar arrangement, a grand coalition always threatens the opposition.

“In such cases, you have to find other mechanisms for checks and balances. Parliament, the media and the internal checks within the coalition are expected to play a major role as substitutes for the opposition,” the ambassador said.

“The coalition should try and check itself,” he added.

One inevitable result of a grand coalition is that it reduces the opposition to a small group, creating an imperfect balance in the House.

In Germany, for instance, Parliament is 70 per cent government and 30 per cent opposition, he said.

Coalitions are seen to hold the future for fractured societies or those emerging from civil strife where a winner-takes-all approach never works. But they are hard to craft even as they become inevitable across the world.

Sometimes, coalitions are not about fractures in society. They become inevitable because no party has the clear mandate to govern the country.

“Grand coalitions are necessary when you have a national challenge that requires social and political cohesion,” Lindner says.

While he emphasised that what worked for his country might not necessarily be what Kenya needs, the ambassador thinks there are elements the country could learn from the German experience.

The pattern from across the world is that negotiation points are clearer where parties have specific policies they want to pursue and therefore want to influence governance in a specific direction.

In Germany, the ambassador said, negotiations that went on for two months focused on issues of substance, tackling departments and sectors of government, based on an agreement that the party with the most seats would produce the Chancellor.

In Germany, they went department by department then put the agreement down in a 120-page agreement. The process involved marrying the manifestos. That took 80 per cent of the negotiations time.

The ODM had in its election manifesto, two critical programmes that distinguished it from the other parties.

ODM wanted a devolved system of government called majimbo, which it later called ugatuzi. In this proposal, which PNU bitterly opposed, ODM promised an arrangement that would ensure equitable and even development of all regions of the country.

To achieve this, ODM promised to disperse power to communities and engage Kenyans in the management of their neighbourhoods and the services they use.

The party was to achieve this partly by raising the Constituency Development Fund according to need and local demands.

The other ODM programme was poverty eradication.

The party promised to introduce social protection programme for the very poor households by providing monthly cash transfers.

That was expected to reduce current poverty and inequality by providing a minimum level of income for extremely poor families and break ” the intergenerational transmission of poverty.”

This programme was to be ODM’s “flagship poverty reduction programme” called the Usawa Programme.

First casualties

It was to be realised in the creation of a Ministry of Social Development and was to be in the Office of the President.

The party said it had secured an agreement with donor agencies like World Bank to fund the programme.

There were other things ODM held dearly. The Office of the President (OP), which has towered over all the others since independence, was to be one of the first casualties.

ODM had plans to “decongest” the OP, take away a number of departments and functions currently lumped in there to make it more transparent and accountable.

Raila was to invest heavily in a new ministry of Social Development, which was to be mandated to deal specifically with poverty and efforts to bridge the gap between the rich and the poor.

ODM was also to pay more attention to ministries handling infrastructure and create “a lot of positions” for women in its administration.

The party estimated it would spend up to $2 billion (over Sh120 billion) on infrastructure, some of which was to come from bonds.

It also toyed with the construction of several highways to open up the countryside.

“Our capacity is 1,200MW and our peak demand is close to 1,100MW, so there is very little left, which is why at peak times, we suffer shortages.

“So we want to expand generation capacity, because we need sufficient supply to attract bigger investments here, like the steel industry,” Raila said in an interview.

ODM Secretary-General, Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, said an ODM victory would mark “the first regime change since independence.”

“We have always had the same kind of administration since independence, where one takes over and continues from where the other left. A Raila victory will mark the first time somebody tries to decentralise power and share it with the regions. This will be the first real transition since independence,” Nyong’o said then.

On these, the Party will have to convince its coalition partners.

As ODM enters into a pact with PNU, the implication is that the party will have to own and help correct even some of the mistakes that may have been caused by its partner which was largely associated with the government.

When parties in Germany joined hands in 2005, they struggled to agree on how to plug a euro35 billion (US$41 billion) budget gap while trying to boost a chronically stagnant economy and reduce an 11 per cent jobless rate.

Both sides made a breakthrough when they agreed on raising VAT to shore up the government’s finances.

Published by Korir, API africanpress@getmail.no source.standard.ke

A Cabinet minister has been denied a visa to travel to Geneva, Switzerland, on official assignment.

The minister, who is a member of PNU and was to leave on Saturday night with a ministerial team, cancelled the trip on Thursday after being informed of the visa ban.

Sources said the minister’s visa application alongside that of a Permanent Secretary and a legal officer in the same ministry were submitted to the Swiss Embassy in Nairobi on Tuesday. While the other two were approved, the minister got a letter from the embassy, saying the visa had been denied.

The letter did not explain if the minister’s visa ban extends to other European Union countries, but the trend with such bans is that other countries and the US take the cue.

Once the letter was delivered, the minister instructed accounting officials in the ministry to cancel a Sh123,000 imprest, which had been filled out for travel expenses.

The minister and the team were to attend a three-day workshop, which starts in Geneva tomorrow.

The PS and the other officer left last night aboard a Kenya Airways flight, via Amsterdam.

A Kenya Airways reservations officer said the other two names were on the confirmed passenger list but the minister’s was not.

Phones to the Swiss embassy in Nairobi were not answered, being a weekend. But the country issued a warning two weeks ago that it would take measures against leaders seen as subverting the peace process.

A statement from the Swiss Embassy consular, Mr Arthur Mattli, on February 19, said his country would take measures against leaders seen to have held back the talks. Also included were those seen to subvert democracy or promote violence.

“Switzerland considers the mediation the only way to resolve the crisis into which Kenya has plunged, following the announcement of the contentious results of the presidential elections held on December 27,” said Mattli’s statement.

The statement, similar to others issued by the US and some EU countries, were seen to target several top politicians, including Cabinet ministers.

Government spokesman, Dr Alfred Mutua, on Saturday denied any knowledge of a ban on a minister to travel to Geneva.

“There is no such thing. I don’t know where you got that from,” said Mutua by telephone.

The statements and the ban threats were made before the Thursday breakthrough, in which President Kibaki and ODM leader, Mr Raila Odinga, signed a power-sharing deal.

Only Mukurwe-ini MP, Mr Kabando wa Kabando, has openly admitted having been asked by the US Embassy to explain in an essay how he has promoted peace in the country.

Published by Korir, API africanpress@getmail.no source.standard.ke