Cape Town (South Africa) ” Jacob Zuma is off the hook and is now set for a smooth run at the presidency.

The dramatic turnabout is a result of secret evidence said to point to blatant executive and outside interference in the work of the National Prosecuting Authority. This “Mbekigate” evidence is said to be so explosive it would be neither wise nor viable to prosecute the ANC leader, who has long argued he is the victim of political conspiracy.

The evidence in the possession of Zuma’s legal team means acting prosecutions boss Mokotedi Mpshe is expected to bite the bullet and drop the charges against Zuma within days, a decision which will be processed by KwaZulu-Natal Judge President Vuka Tshabalala. Those close to the NPA are “very positive” Mpshe will make a decision after consulting his lieutenants on Monday.

The political fallout from the Mbekigate scandal for several former top politicians and key state officials is likely to be immense. These include former president Thabo Mbeki, his confidantes in the presidency, former NPA boss Bulelani Ngcuka and former Scorpions boss Leonard McCarthy.

Those close to the process, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, say the NPA is expected to approach Tshabalala as early as tomorrow to formally seal a decision to drop charges.

Mpshe – who under the law has the prerogative to decide whether to drop charges or proceed with a prosecution – has weathered external and internal pressure since news first broke a fortnight ago that the state’s case was seriously compromised.

After tomorrow’s meeting with his top officials – who themselves are divided on the complex issue – Mpshe is likely to announce the state will drop charges of corruption, fraud, racketeering and tax evasion, as feverishly speculated in the media over the past fortnight.

The view is understood to be shared by his deputy national director of public prosecutions Willie Hofmeyr, who has been the key NPA official liaising with Zuma’s legal team and who, along with a colleague, listened to sensational recordings in the defence’s possession that have swung the pendulum in favour of Zuma.

In terms of the Criminal Procedure Act, the NPA is obliged to go to court to withdraw charges when it decides not to proceed with a prosecution.
It is expected that the NPA will approach Tshabalala about the matter in chambers as part of the formal process that will put an end to Zuma’s eight-year legal battle. Sources say Tshabalala could simply strike the case off the roll without fanfare, and not wait for the August 25 trial date, when Zuma will be in court for the charges to be formally withdrawn by the state.

Either way, Zuma will appear in open court for the charges to be withdrawn against him.

“If he (Tshabalala) wants the case to follow the roll procedure, then the NPA will then have to sneak the case in court and won’t have to wait for August.

It is the matter of procedure really,” a source said on Saturday.

Reached for comment yesterday, Tshabalala said: “I know nothing about it. I am not aware of any case involving the NPA or Jacob Zuma that is set down for this week in Pietermaritzburg.”

Mpshe has thus far declined to publicly commit to a date for his decision, saying he was still considering the submissions, including those made by the DA on Thursday. “I don’t know whether we are going to drop it (the case) or not. I am presently considering their representations.

Indications are that, should Mpshe drop the charges, he will have no choice but to disclose the nature of the new evidence.

Rather than the evidence going to the merits of the case, which remains solid, it will revolve around the allegations of political conspiracy that Zuma has maintained was behind the case against him from day one.

It is likely to prove a huge embarrassment for, among others, those in the former Mbeki administration and could cast a long shadow on what is left of the former president’s legacy since he was replaced last year.

source.Cape Argus (South Africa)

Nairobi (Kenya) – East Africa offers a vantage point for observing one of the great surprises of the continent: Nigeria, till now famous for its conmen, is becoming an African and world economic superpower right under our eyes.

Although it is stuck with the reputation of being the base of the world’s leading Internet scammers and cheque forgers, and home to one of the world’s most corrupt politicians and bureaucrats, Nigeria has done something no other country has managed since the colonial era. It has studied sin and learnt from it how to be competitive.

Nigerian companies are busy snapping up insurance businesses in East Africa, are into banking, and most notably, in Kenya recently, Nigeria’s Silverbird acquired Nu Metro. Formerly a South African franchise, Nu Metro is East Africa’s most prestigious entertainment company. Outside the continent, especially in Europe and North America, Nigerian companies advertise more on TV than those from any other African country.

We didn’t see the Nigerians coming, because of the popular prejudice that every one them is either a former or current military dictator, a tycoon who has stolen oil money, or a fraudster. Therefore, we didn’t take them seriously.

So Nigerians could end up owning most of Africa, and we might be beating and burning them as the South Africans did with the African immigrants last year.

While some Nigerians are hustlers and can be loud and in your face, underlying that is a self-confidence rare in Africa, and an abundance of traits necessary for success. When South African criminal gangs were roasting immigrants over bonfires, the only group that did something about it was the Nigerians.

Near Witwatersrand University, as the mobs approached a residential area populated by Nigerians, the West Africans didn’t hide or run. They emerged with AK47s and told the South Africans that they had every right to be in South Africa, because they fed, housed, educated and gave critical diplomatic support to the ANC and other anti-apartheid groups during their struggle. The South African mobs fled.

In a world where Asian and Western businessmen bribe African officials and politicians left, right and centre, only the Nigerians who know how to hustle on the international stage can match them. In this way, they have been able to keep a slice of the African cake at home.

Fortune has also handed Nigeria a good hand. With a population of between 120 million and 140 million, there are more Nigerians than East Africans.
That is frequently seen as a source of instability, because there are too many poor, hungry and angry Nigerian mouths.

With its horrid cities, especially Lagos, no regular businessman who isn’t half crazy would want to set up shop there, right? Wrong.

Lagos is one of the toughest training grounds on planet Earth. If you can survive Lagos as a businessperson, there is no city in the world you can’t conquer. Small wonder, then, that the Nigerians are the most dominant group of Africans outside the continent ” with the dogged Somalis hot on their heels.

Also, 140 million people can be a boon. A Kenyan, Tanzanian, or Ugandan politician who steals $10 million will most likely buy stocks on the exchange, purchase a local mansion, a flat in London, send the kids to a British university, and take a new mistress.

A Nigerian governor who steals that amount of oil money, can invest it in toothpicks or mobile phones, and by the end of two trading cycles he has sold so many, his $10 million has multiplied into $30 million. He gets on a Kenya Airways plane, lands in an East African capital, and he is the richest man in town. Warts and all, our Nigerian brothers and sisters are the stuff of champions.

* Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group’s managing editor for convergence and new products.

source.The East African (Kenya), by Charles Onyango-Abbo*

Hargeisa (Somalia) ” Harir Omar Yusuf, about to finish high school, should be choosing a degree course and deciding on a career direction; instead, he spends most of his time planning a perilous escape from his hometown of Hargeisa, capital of the self-declared republic of Somaliland in the northwest of Somalia, to Europe.

“As soon as I finish high school I will go there, because I have nothing to stay for in Somaliland,” he told IRIN, adding that his parents could not afford university fees and he was not assured of a place even if they could.

Yusuf has many friends who have made the journey – first through Ethiopia, then Sudan and Libya and finally to Italy via the Mediterranean Sea – and are now living as illegal immigrants in Italy and other European nations. He also has many friends languishing in Sudanese or Libyan jails, arrested for entering the country illegally, and knows of many who died making the trip, but he remains determined.

Tens of thousands of Somalis also try to cross the Gulf of Aden into Yemen every year aboard small vessels run by people-traffickers operating from Somali ports; according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), one out of every 20 people attempting the journey in 2007 died.

Yusuf says he would rather risk death than live a life of certain poverty in Somaliland.

“The issue of young people running away is very problematic in Somaliland,” said Omer Ali Abdi, the director of the youth department in the Ministry of Youth and Sports. “Year after year, graduates from secondary schools are increasing and our universities just don’t have the capacity to take in all of them – and even when they graduate from university, there is no guarantee they will get a job.”

According to Ahmed Hashi Abdi, vice-minister in the Ministry of Planning and Coordination, only 10-20 percent of people under 35 are employed. “Because it is unrecognised internationally, Somaliland has no access to bi-lateral funding, which has caused our economy to suffer, especially after the livestock ban of 1999, which destroyed the main source of income of most of our people,” Abdi said. “For the same reason, international scholarships and higher education exchange programmes are not open to our students.”

An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Saudi Arabia in 1999 resulted in a regional ban on imported livestock from Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Kenya, and Djibouti; the ban on Somalia remains in place and now includes several other Middle Eastern nations. After the ban, remittances became the main foreign exchange earner; thousands fled the country during an outbreak of war in 1988, and regularly send money to their families. The Ministry of Planning estimates remittances account for US$500 million – or about 80 percent of Somaliland’s economy.

“When people leave the country legally, we are happy that they are able to send back money, but as much as possible we try to discourage young people from leaving illegally – then it becomes a matter of life and death and we cannot encourage that,” Abdi said.

Despite the risks, many families scrimp and save to send their children on these journeys. Over the past year, Amina Rooble (not her real name) has spent more than $6,500 on transport, communication, paying traffickers and bribing prison officers, all in an effort to get her son Hashim to Italy. Although his boat sank, Hashim survived and is now seeking asylum in Italy. “Even though my son was rescued, two other members of my family died on that boat,” Rooble said.

The government and local NGOs have run campaigns to discourage young people from leaving, but according to Yahye Mohamoud Ahmed, head of the Somaliland National Youth Organisation NGO, unless the government can provide some motivation, young people will continue to escape in droves.

“They have no incentive to stay – no jobs and no businesses, so it is fairly futile to tell them to stay,” he said. “They need to be given the capacity to feed themselves here.”

Ahmed added that many young men were now taking swimming lessons and using hi-tech communication equipment – such as satellite telephones to make SOS calls – to make their trips safer. “When they hear about their friends and relatives in London or Italy, they get encouraged to go; even when their relatives have no jobs there, they still think they have a better life than here,” he added.

According to Ahmed Abdi, the national development plan includes the creation of two vocational training institutes in every region of Somaliland to boost the number of tertiary institutions and the variety of courses available.

“We also intend to set up micro-finance schemes to enable them to be self-supporting,” he added. He noted that despite the continued livestock ban, a few countries in the Arab world were starting to buy Somaliland’s meat, and the government hoped the Saudi ban would be lifted, restoring the industry.

The Ministry of Youth and Sports, in partnership with the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), is drafting a national youth policy – due to be passed by parliament in 2011 – that hopes to address issues of youth emigration, unemployment, education and political participation.

“What we need more than anything is resources from our international partners focused on development rather than strictly emergencies – resources focusing on education and building the economy would encourage young people to stay and build their own nation,” the Ministry of Youth’s Abdi said.

source.UN Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)