Raila has narrow lead over Martha Karua – poll (Interesting results: When Karua takes her campaigns to all regions she might defeat Raila.)
Posted by African Press International on April 19, 2009
By James Ratemo and Morton Saulo
Prime Minister Raila Odinga would be elected president if elections were called today, a Steadman poll shows.
However, Kenyans’ support for the Coalition Government has waned. Only 33 per cent approve the power sharing deal, down from 61 per cent in December, last year. More than half of voters ““ 53 per cent “ want fresh elections. In fact, 74 of those interviewed predicted snap polls. About 43 per cent wish elections could wait until 2012, say the findings by Steadman Group (now Synovate).
Raila’s closest competitor is former Cabinet Minister Martha Karua followed by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.
Raila leads at 19 per cent with Karua closely chasing at 16 per cent and Kalonzo 14 per cent.
However, 33 per cent of Kenyans prefer new candidates.
If President Kibaki would run, shows the survey, six per cent of Kenyans would vote for him with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta closely following at four per cent and Agriculture Minister William Ruto, three per cent.
Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi and Internal Security Minister, George Saitoti are the least popular candidates, with each one per cent support.
These results would however change if all candidates declared their intention to run for presidency as Karua has.
Raila, Saitoti, Mudavadi, Ruto and Uhuru are yet to declare their presidential ambitions and President Kibaki would constitutionally be out of the race come 2012.
On performance, President Kibaki was rated poorly, with 48 per cent saying he has failed. About 38 per cent felt Kalonzo has not performed. Raila is the least disapproved at 36 per cent.
The media remains the most trusted institution with 73 per cent of respondents giving it the thumbs- up.
Parliament has slipped in ratings with only three per cent of Kenyans expressing confidence in the august House.
Different scenario
Releasing the results yesterday, Steadman lead researcher, Dr Tom Wolf, said Kenyans have also expressed displeasure in the manner in which the Government is handling poverty, food pricing, corruption, unemployment and crime.
On the presidential race
, said the survey, the scenario would change as more candidates aggressively declare their interests and Karua would be reaping from her resignation and being the loudest in declaring her presidential ambitions.
She is Narc-Kenya’s chairperson and is likely to cause a storm especially in Central Province, which is also considered a stronghold for Uhuru, Kalonzo and Saitoti.
Things may also take a new turn depending on how the considered candidates interrelate in the run up to 2012 hence it would be immature to celebrate now.
For Karua though, the results would serve as an impetus for her since she is now a notch higher than most of her competitors. However it may also work against her since the Gichugu MPs’ enemies would work around the clock to halt her growing popularity.
Parties lose appeal
The main objective of this survey was to assess the general public opinion on Government performance, public trust in various public institutions and personalities.
Other issues include performance of the various public personalities, evaluation of the power sharing agreement and Kenyans’ political alignment.
Majority of Kenyans no longer have a party of choice but ODM leads in popularity at 31 per cent followed by PNU at 11 per cent, Narc-Kenya, ten per cent, ODM-Kenya, eight per cent and Kanu, two per cent. All the other parties share in the remaining three per cent.
The poll was conducted between Monday and Friday last week involving 2035 respondents aged 18 and above countrywide.
Dubbed the Social, Political, Economic and Cultural Barometer, the survey is conducted every three months.
source.standard.ke
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