Photo: Abdi Hassan/IRIN

A rise of 2 degrees Celsius in global temperatures would generate bigger, fiercer and more frequent heat waves and drought

JOHANNESBURG,� – New projections by the US-based Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) show that mean global temperature could increase by as much as 5.2 degrees Celsius this century if “rapid and massive action” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not taken, according to a press release. Previous studies have indicated an increase of 2.4 degrees Celsius.

Various studies have shown that a rise of 2 degrees Celsius in global temperatures would probably destroy 30 percent to 40 percent of all known species, generate bigger, fiercer and more frequent heat waves and droughts, more intense weather events like floods and cyclones, and would raise the sea level by at least a metre, displacing millions.

The new projections, published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, indicate a 90 percent chance of the temperature increasing by between 3.5 degrees and 7.4 degrees Celsius during the next 100 years.

Read more on the study

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Photo: Julius Mwelu/IRIN

A man sets a car on fire during a demonstration after police had fired tear-gas to disperse the crowd at a funeral service for people killed in post-election violence in Nairobi, Kenya , January 2008

NAIROBI,� – A law guiding the handling of internally displaced persons (IDPs) would help achieve lasting peace and reconciliation in conflict-prone parts of Kenya, according to a member of parliament.

“Kenya needs a law on IDPs because the way we deal with refugees is not the way we deal with IDPs,” Milly Odhiambo, a nominated MP, said on 20 May in Nairobi at a workshop on gender-based violence during Kenya’s post-election conflict in 2008.

The workshop was organised by the Kenya Section of the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ-Kenya) and the South African-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS).

While there are national and international laws governing refugees, Kenya has yet to put in place a law on the treatment of IDPs, despite thousands of displaced people from various conflicts dating to the 1990s.

“For effective peace and reconciliation, both men and women from different ethnic communities must be able to tell each other ‘feel my pain as much as I feel your pain’; women and men must work together if we are to end sexual violence, especially that directed [at] women during conflicts,” she said.

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Photo: Shabbir Hussain Imam/IRIN

Aid agencies are more accountable but still too “top down” says the latest Humanitarian Accountability Report (file photo)

DAKAR,� – Aid agencies are far more accountable to disaster affected people than they were a decade ago, says the latest Humanitarian Accountability Report, but problems remain in transparency about interventions, communication with aid recipients, monitoring and reporting on sexual abuse and eliminating corruption.�

�More and more agencies are getting better at accountability to beneficiaries through establishing complaints procedures and designating staff to be accessible to aid recipients, but such accountability cannot yet be described as the norm,� Tearfund disaster management director David Bainbridge told IRIN.

Progress

Aid practitioners say there has been a change in mindset. �Recognition of the importance of accountability is the biggest system-wide shift,� said Meri Ghorkhmazyan, Emergencies Monitoring and Evaluation Adviser at Save the Children. �And the understanding that it goes beyond one person or department to take a commitment at all levels, including leaders, to champion it.�

Numerous aid agencies have developed tools to improve their accountability to beneficiaries, say agency staff. More and more agencies have set up complaints-handling systems, and are putting accountability at the heart of project evaluations, which they increasingly make publicly available.

accountability cannot yet be described as the norm

Particularly pertinent, said Ghorkhmazyan, are country or emergency-led accountability drives, such as the Myanmar Accountability and Learning Working Group (ALWG), or schemes in Pakistan, India and the Philippines to certify accountable NGOs.

�The overall impression gained is of a widening and deepening of accountability within the humanitarian system during 2008,� John Borton, author of the annual report,�produced�by the Humanitarian Accountability Project (HAP-I).

For Nick Stockton, HAP-I director, the clearest measure of commitment to better programming is an agency�s joining the �HAP-I certification scheme�, by which an agency agrees to be audited by HAP-I and meet accountability standards, such as strong beneficiary participation.

In 2008 nine agencies became HAP-I members, bringing the total to 28; two became certified making five in all; and a further 14 enrolled in the certification scheme.

�Agencies that are working towards certification are genuinely ensuring that their quality systems are robust and are thereby assuring [targeted beneficiaries] that their concerns and complaints�will influence the way [the agency�s] operations are run,� said Stockton.

Donors are also championing the scheme. UK Under-Secretary for International Development Gareth Thomas has suggested that the HAP-I certification could become a condition for DFID aid in future.

But this is risky, according to Stockton. �This would be coercive�accountability will work only if organisations make a commitment to high-level programming, and to the dignity of their stakeholders because they believe it is the proper thing to do.�

Photo: M. Baiwong/UNHCR

Refugees from the Central African Republic in southeastern Chad (file photo)

Still top-down

While many agencies are attempting to be more transparent about their operations, information often flows more freely upwards to donors, than downwards to beneficiaries, noted the report.�

Accountability and high-quality programming still does not necessarily determine an agency�s financial success, said Stockton. �Instead, high quality professional marketing capacities play a huge part in the fortunes of major humanitarian agencies.�

�And If they are from an OECD [Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development] country, the prospects of income success are far more likely than if they are from a non-OECD country.�

“The Listening Project”, an�extensive consultation,�with aid beneficiaries in 13 countries revealed confusion over who is responsible for what in aid delivery, particularly with international non-profits increasingly sub-contracting to local organisations.
�
�People in recipient communities find this confusing and distancing � they often do not know who is really behind the assistance�and do not therefore know who to hold accountable or how to do so,� the consultation said.

Despite aid agencies stressing participatory language in their project documents and communication materials, many stakeholders said they were still not consulted on programme design and feedback opportunities were limited.

Monitoring abuse

Separate reports by HAP-I and Save the Children revealed that much of the sexual exploitation and abuse of beneficiaries � by aid workers, security forces, community members and others � goes unreported because of lack of information about where to report and fear of aid being cut.

Though progress on joint monitoring has been slow, HAP-I member agencies are now discussing how to set up shared monitoring and reporting mechanisms on sexual exploitation and abuse, Ghorkhmazyan said.

On the whole, communities are speaking out more, said Tearfund�s Bainbridge. �Good participation is the backbone of relief�.Communities are requesting more information from aid agencies, and are learning to manage the international community better and keep them accountable for the commitments they make.� In all field sites Tearfund now sets up signboards in the local language stating who they are, what they are doing and how to give feedback.

Save the Children increasingly charts beneficiary feedback, but acting on it can take time and it costs � factors that donors must take into account, Ghorkhmazyan said. �We need to create more flexible communication systems [among] agencies, beneficiaries and donors to aid this process.�

The overall impression is of a widening and deepening of accountability within the humanitarian system

Champions needed

HAP-I�s message is spreading, partly evidenced by the number of accountability initiatives. Competition around accountability is a good thing, said Stockton. �I have no doubts about healthy competition. That�s the way the market, when it�s working with a degree of regulation around it, will be good for beneficiaries.�

The UN Refugee agency, UNHCR, has just undergone its first HAP-I accountability audit; and the UN Children�s Fund (UNICEF) set up its own accountability drive in 2007.

Three donors � Sweden, Denmark and the United Kingdom � are now associate members of HAP-I.

Increasingly accountability-evaluators are teaming up: Sphere, which outlines minimum standards in humanitarian programming, and People in Aid, which pushes accountability in human resources, are discussing ways to collaborate with HAP-I to create one-stop-shop accountability tools.

Ghorkhmazyan said that in future agencies need to set up more concrete accountability measures. �Staff need to know they will be rated against criteria such as transparency or beneficiary feedback, and that the system will be triggered at an early stage if misbehavior occurs,� she told IRIN.

But ultimately accountability will improve only if leaders across all organisations champion it, Bainbridge said. �We need a fundamental culture change from one where we have the resources and �do help to� [impose help on] people to one where we exist to serve and support those affected by disasters on their terms�this [change] needs to come from the top of an organisation and be shared by all serving individuals.�

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Photo: Pierre Holtz/IRIN

Vulnerable Senegalese families will be given cash handouts (file photo)

DAKAR,� – In June the World Bank and government will start distributing cash to thousands of needy urban and rural Senegalese families with children aged five and under, to help protect them from still-high food prices.

The US$6.3 million will be used to offset �shocks� to family incomes caused by high prices, by giving families cash installments, aiming to reduce the risk of children becoming malnourished. The money will be accompanied by micronutrient supplements and fortified foods, according to a World Bank communiqu�.

The Senegalese government will target the most vulnerable families country-wide, based on poverty and nutrition assessments.

�We will distribute the money to mothers who have vulnerable children as this is the surest way the money will be spent in the best interests of the child,� Mademba Ndiaye, World Bank West Africa spokesperson, told IRIN.

The Bank runs targeted cash transfer programmes across Africa, as a way � the institution says � to help poor families avert crisis. This is the first it has run in Senegal.

Malnutrition rates in Senegal have dropped by 23 percent since 2000, according to the World Bank. Ndiaye said the Bank and the government want to ensure this trend continues despite high food prices and potential shocks from the global financial crisis.

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Photo: Keith Marais/IRIN

Sea storm surges could affect more and more people (file photo)

NAIROBI,� – Several large African cities are at risk from rising sea levels and intense storms, experts warn.

Poor neighbourhoods and slums in Bugama and Okrika in Nigeria, Freetown in Sierra Leone, Bathurst in the Gambia and Tanga in Tanzania, are especially vulnerable.

In such low-income urban centres, infrastructure is often non-existent or ill-maintained, according to a World Bank report, Sea level Rise and Storm Surges, while storm-water drainage infrastructure is often outdated and inadequate.�

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a trend has emerged since the mid-1970s where storms tend to last longer and be more intense, with a strong correlation to the rise in tropical sea surface temperature.

In sub-Saharan Africa, storm surge zones are concentrated in Madagascar, Mauritania, Mozambique and Nigeria. These countries alone account for about half (53 percent) of the total increase in the region�s surge zones resulting from sea level rise and intensified storms.

At least three cyclones struck Madagascar between January and April 2009, affecting thousands.

Photo: Tomas de Mul/IRIN

A bicycle, a whistle and a colour coded flag system are used to warn communities in Mozambique of cyclone danger. A Red alert is issued when a cyclone is within 6 hours of landfall (file photo)

Vulnerable Mozambique

In Mozambique, one of the most vulnerable coastlines in Africa, 15 of the 56 tropical cyclones and tropical storms that entered the Mozambique Channel from 1980 to 2007 made landfall.

Tropical cyclones, also called typhoons and hurricanes, are powerful storms generated over tropical or sub-tropical waters whose impact includes extremely strong winds, torrential rains, high waves and damaging storm surges, leading to extensive flooding.

“Coastal flooding has started to be of concern in the last 10 to 15 years,” Pedro Tomo, director of the Mozambique National Institute for Disaster Management, told IRIN. “Now, a few times each year, there are people who wake up in water.”

In 50 years, Tomo said, some coastal towns will disappear if nothing is done – such as Nacala, Beira, Quelimane and Mahajanga.

Such a scenario would not just displace the population, but also damage economic infrastructure, said Michel Matera, programme manager, crisis prevention and recovery/environment, for the UN Development Programme in Mozambique.

At least 2.5 million people live in Mozambique’s coastal areas, surviving on rain-fed farming and fishing. But migration to coastal towns is placing more people, infrastructure and services at risk, according to a study by the Mozambique institute.

“Models suggest that for the Indian Ocean there is an overall tendency toward decreasing frequency of tropical cyclones but increasing cyclone intensity,� the report stated.

“More severe cyclones will pose the biggest threat to the [Mozambique] coast; beyond 2030, the accelerating sea level rise will present the greatest danger, especially when combined with high tides and storm surges,” it added.

Researchers project a 3-5 percent increase in wind speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures. “The current understanding is that ocean warming plays a major role in intensified cyclone activity and heightened storm surges,” it stated.

In a scenario of a high, non-linear sea-level rise due to polar ice melting, Beira “will be cut off from the interior and will likely become an island…”

Maputo’s port, its rail links and oil facilities, which are on an estuary, are also subject to flooding.

Studies show that Mozambique, Ghana and Togo may lose more than 50 percent of their coastal gross domestic product (GDP), but losses would be highest in Nigeria (US$407.61 million).

Coastal agriculture, in terms of extent of croplands, will be affected 100 percent in Nigeria, 66.67 percent in Ghana, and 50 percent in Togo and Equatorial Guinea.

Desert creep

Mauritania is experiencing the impact of a changing climate exemplified by a steadily creeping desert and other extreme weather events. It is one of the countries likely to be worst affected by intensified storm surges.

“About every seven years, there are very high sea waves that sometimes flood up to 800m inshore,” Mohamed Moulaye Ely, head of civil protection in Mauritania’s Ministry of Interior, told IRIN. “In 1988, this happened during the day but in 2001 it was at night and most people were caught unawares.”

Mauritania relies mainly on sand dunes as a natural barrier to control coastal flooding. The dunes cover a 5km stretch into the capital, Nouakchott.

“There isn’t much prevention planning to deal with disasters here,” he said. “We are like a fire brigade. We create a committee to respond when something happens.”

Mauritania has a disaster management platform, but “…the political situation will be a major determiner of its success”, he said. The military ousted former president Sidi Mohamed ould Cheikh Abdallahi in a 2008 coup.

Photo: NASA

A crack recorded in the sea ice along the Antarctic Peninsula (file photo): There are new projections in sea-level rise caused by the accelerating rates of loss from ice sheets

Rising sea levels

Much of the land in and around Nigeria�s commercial capital Lagos is less than 2m above sea level so it too is expected to be affected by rising sea levels.

In Cotonou, Benin, the continued advance of the sea, coastal erosion and the rise in sea levels are already threatening vulnerable communities and disrupting the least-protected sensitive ecosystems. Some roads, beaches and buildings have already been destroyed by the coastline�s regression in the past 10 years.

Zanzibar is experiencing marine flooding, partly due to mangrove and coconut plantation felling, said Waride Jabu, director of the disaster management department. Erosion is also being experienced along the coastline, where an increase in building activity has been noted.

Coastal erosion is expected to threaten investment in beach resorts. This will arise from the gradual inundation of offshore islands and increased damage to the coral eco-systems, which will reduce their capacity to protect the coast.

Jabu said high tidal waves were increasing. “So far, no damage to infrastructure has been noted, but the sea seems to be slowly eating the shore.” The Zanzibari disaster department was encouraging reforestation along the coastline.

In Eritrea, trees are being planted on the 1,100km coastline, said Solomon Haile, the director of the planning and statistics division in the Ministry of Agriculture. “The land is a bit elevated so we are not currently afraid of the sea rising,” he added.

More than half the coastal population of Djibouti, Togo, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Sudan would be at risk from intensified storms and rising sea levels, experts say.

Counting the cost

According to the Mozambique study, the re-insurance industry has also recognised the need to increase the probability of tropical cyclones making landfall on vulnerable coasts in its risk calculations. �Risk carriers believe they cannot wait until science has provided answers to all the relevant questions, but must already make substantial upward adjustments to the cost of cover in such risk portfolios.�

An average 78 million people worldwide are exposed each year to tropical cyclone wind hazard and another 1.6 million to storm surges. In terms of economic exposure, an annual average of $1,284 billion in GDP is exposed to tropical cyclones, according to the 2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.

“Currently 10 percent of the world�s total population (over 600 million people) and 13 percent of its urban population (over 360 million people) live on the 2 percent of the world�s land area that is less than 10m above sea level, known as the Low Elevation Coastal Zone,” it stated. “In Africa, 12 percent of the urban population lives in the LECZ.”

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