Photo: Tung X. Ngo/IRIN

Environmental migration is a fact but to what degree it will increase over coming decades is disputed (file photo)

DAKAR, – Specialists studying the likelihood of population movements due to climate change effects offer widely divergent predictions. But most agree policymakers must understand that migration is a vital coping mechanism for at-risk populations and must do more to help destination hubs prepare.

�Migration and mobility are always seen as exceptions but they are the norm. Mobility helps people get out of poverty,� said Cecelia Tacoli, senior researcher with London-based NGO the International Institute for Environment and Development. �If people affected by climate change lack access to resources or need to diversify their income sources, this lack should be [addressed] rather than be seen as a problem.�

Tacoli will publish a study, ‘Crisis or adaptation? Migration and climate change in a context of high mobility�, in October.

The numbers

Norman Myers, renowned environmentalist and fellow with Oxford University�s 21st Century School, who has just completed a study for the Swedish International Development Agency, said �hundreds of millions� of people could be driven from their homes by environmental crises and degradation by 2040.

NGO Christian Aid in 2007 estimated that up to 250 million people could be displaced by 2050 as a result of climate change effects. And in 2001 a World Bank study by Susmita Dasgupta predicted that sea level rises could force hundreds of millions of people to move within this century.

Up to 70 percent of people living in cities of 5 million or more live within 1km-2 km of seaways, according to the UN.

But the IIED�s Tacoli said the projected migrant figures are inflated, for they tend to be based on population estimates in areas most likely to be affected by climate change, rather than on the number of people most likely to move.

Koko Warner, head of the Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerability and Adaptation Section at the UN University, said too many variables make accurate migrant predictions difficultto-impossible.

�When�predicting the environment, we can feel a bit confident � there is a lot of information out there. But when we are studying humans, it�s more dicey�.Figures are almost always based on census information undertaken every five to 10 years, so all you get is a snapshot.�

These figures do not indicate why people have left or what the social dynamics behind their movements were, she added.

Myers defended his predictions. �These should not be taken to be gospel truth,� he said. �Rather they are informed estimates. If scientists kept quiet about numbers, then policymakers would say the absence of evidence [means] the absence of a problem.�

If scientists kept quiet about numbers, then policymakers would say the absence of evidence [means] the absence of a problem

Local solutions

To date research on natural disaster-related population movements indicates most affected people move within a country�s borders, with the most vulnerable populations the least able to migrate far, with long-distance international migration the least likely option available.

One-off extreme events tend to trigger short-distance, short-term migrations; while longer-term environmental changes tend to generate longer-distance, more permanent migrations, says a 2009 Refugee Studies Centre report by James Morrissey.

Tacoli and others are pushing for policymakers to speed up help to vulnerable states to prepare for climate change at home, for instance by building up infrastructure and basic services in small towns in rural areas that could become destination hubs.

�Small towns in agricultural areas are especially important to provide livelihoods to the poorest groups, who are often landless and do not have the means to migrate to larger cities,” Tacoli told IRIN.

�With many aspects of climate change mitigation it will be local governments that can make the most difference,� she said. �We will need the support of national governments in affected countries to promote this, but at the moment we are talking only about external governments when it comes to migration.�

Boosting local adaptation could also diminish the number of people forced to move in the first place, Warner said.

This must be at the heart of the migrant debate, rather than stirring up �fear-of-migration� rhetoric from policymakers and leaders, many of whom have framed climate change as a national security issue, researchers told IRIN.

Fear rhetoric?

An August report by the US Department of Defense said climate-induced crises and related mass people movements could topple governments, feed terrorist movements or destabilize entire regions. The UK Ministry of Defence�s Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) has made similar predictions.

And the European Union High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, warned in 2008 that climate-change-related migration �may increase conflict in transit and destination areas. Europe must expect substantially increased migratory pressure.�

�It�s quite inappropriate for industrialized nations to build barriers � be they institutional, political or mental barriers � across the Mediterranean to bar would-be migrants from passing�if they don�t look at solutions for the numbers � both local and international � they will just get overwhelmed,� Oxford University�s Myers said.

There is some indication that EU member states are approaching a more nuanced picture on environmental migration. The European Commission is funding research in 24 vulnerable countries, to address the dynamics of environmentally-driven migration and examine lessons learned.

Rather than foment panic, leaders should apply lessons from the past to inform both migration and climate change mitigation policies in years to come, Tacoli said.

aj/np source.www.irinnews.org

Photo: Nancy Palus/IRIN

A girl walks across a flooded street in Pikine

DAKAR,� – Mamadou Ndiaye wades across his flooded house as his children bail out dirty water bucket by bucket. He and his family are among many thousands of Senegalese whose homes have been under water for days.

Thirty years ago when Ndiaye moved to Gu�diawaye, 26km outside the city centre of the capital Dakar, the land was dry and cheap. Now residents of this densely populated suburb endure floods every rainy season.

Recurrent flooding in towns and cities across West Africa is more about people than rains, according to Professor Cheikh Mbow at the Institute of Environmental Sciences at the University of Dakar, who studies the impact of climate variability on urban flood risk. The region�s annual flooding reflects explosive population growth in the cities, poverty and poor urban management, he said.

�The rural poor come and settle on unsuitable land and are then exposed to flooding and other hazards like landslides and industrial risks.�

West Africa�s population is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.4 percent from between 2005 and 2010, and the population is likely to more than double from 293 million in 2008 to 617 million in 2050, according to the UN Population Fund, most of this growth in urban areas.

Amid this year�s flooding in West Africa, which the UN says has killed at least 160 people to date, observers repeatedly point to the problem of urban congestion. In Sierra Leone�s capital Freetown the main cause of recent flooding was �indiscriminate building� in green belt zones [undeveloped land] according to national disaster management head, Mary Kamara.

In northern Nigerian cities overpopulation has people building homes on waterways, with natural drainage systems becoming blocked by rubbish, according to Hassan Musa, an environmentalist at Bayero University in the northern city of Kano.

�In some cases when people build houses on waterways and the government hardly restrains them, this leads to a cycle of flooding, destruction and sometimes death,� Musa told IRIN.

We live in atrocious conditions. The flooding is a problem the government could solve. But they have forgotten us. It is that simple

Dakar: No urban plan

Fifty years ago Dakar consisted of a triangular peninsula surrounded by wetlands, known as �cap vert.� The once-green surroundings are now mostly grey, as a 1970s and 1980s Sahel-wide drought pushed rural dwellers to settle in the flood-prone depressions on the city�s outskirts in spite of regulations outlawing construction.

�The State has not really carried out a strong policy to ban occupancy of this unsuitable land,” said Mbow. Now 95 percent of the Dakar region, which includes the districts of Pikine, Rufisque and Gu�diawaye, is covered with buildings and roads that block natural waterways and basins.

Malick Faye, an urban planner at Dakar�s Regional Council, said the severely flooded neighbourhood of Wakhinane in Gu�diawaye � where people have built at the level of the water table � is a good example of the wider problem.

�The water table used to be very low, but now that the rains have come back the water has returned to its natural level. So now all you need is 5mm of rain for it to flood,� he told IRIN.

While emergency response teams pump water from Dakar�s flooded neighbourhoods, experts agree that relocating people is the only solution.

�You can never fight the path of the water,� said the Mbow. �As you pump, the aquifer restores the water level. You have to take the people out and make sure others will not replace them.�

Wikimedia

New cities

In response to devastating floods in Dakar in 2005 the government launched a housing scheme, �Plan Jaxaay�, aiming to relocate flood victims to an area 25km east of the capital.

The government has built 1,793 two-bedroom houses of a planned 3,000, as well as three primary schools, a technical college, a nursery school and a police station.

Cit� Jaxaay resident Aliou Ba, a retired schoolteacher, is pleased with his new house. �I prefer living out in the sticks to living under water in the city,� he said. “The only problem is there is no electricity or running water yet.�

Chim�re Diallo, field coordinator of Plan Jaxaay, said relocating 3,000 families is a good start, but it is not enough given the enormous scale of Senegal�s housing problem.

Some 1.6 million people live in Dakar�s suburbs, with 10,000 per square kilometre in some areas, according to Mbow.

The relocation task is enormous, said the regional council�s Faye. �If you want to move 2,000 families you must create a new city�with all the services and infrastructure required � electricity, water, drainage systems. This is an enormous task�.Plan Jaxaay is a good thing. But we cannot build houses for everyone in a year.�

Frustration over the lack of services and dire conditions in Dakar�s suburbs recently boiled over into sreet protests.

Gu�diawaye resident Ndiaye said: �We live in atrocious conditions. The flooding is a problem the government could solve. But they have forgotten us. It is that simple. We cannot count on our politicians. We can count only on ourselves.�

ft/aj/np source.www.irinnews.org

Photo: Mohammed Amin Jibril/IRIN

A government car is set ablaze in Hargeisa, capital of the secessionist territory of Somaliland , on 12 September as opposition supporters and civil service activists protested the closure of the lower house of representatives

HARGEISA,� – There is a need for all-inclusive consultation and support for local mediation efforts in secessionist Somaliland, which has recently experienced sporadic opposition and civil society-led protests over the indefinite postponement of national elections there, say analysts.

Initially set for April 2008, national polls were pushed to July, then 27 September, before being postponed indefinitely due to the current political situation.

In July, Somaliland president Dahir Riyale Kahin announced that he and the National Election Commission had decided to discard a recently completed hi-tech biometric voters’ register, over the generation of an unreliable list, and would proceed with elections without it. This prompted opposition protests.

According to Yusuf Abdi Gabobe, a veteran of the 1981-1991 Somaliland liberation war, the situation in Somaliland is alarming.

“Somaliland has experienced so many difficult situations but this is unique because it is not a matter that can be resolved traditionally. It is based on voter registration, elections, and a motion to impeach the president,” Gabobe said. “For this reason, we are obliged to make wide consensus consultations to deal with the issue.”

Protests

The 14 September re-opening of the House of Representatives, which had been shut days earlier after a scuffle among members of parliament, has not eased the conflict, Gabobe said. The closure sparked deadly protests in the capital, Hargeisa, on 12 September in which four people died and 22 were injured.

“The solutions must come from an all-party or stakeholder agreement. The National Election Commission, political parties, the upper and lower houses of parliament, traditional elders and civil society should be consulted; it is not an issue for one party,” he said, adding that more public protests were likely.

The opposition-led house was set to debate an impeachment motion against president Riyale over the oft-postponed elections before its closure.

Somaliland is governed by an elected lower House of Representatives and an upper house comprising clan elders. The elders have twice extended president Riyale’s mandate.

A Nairobi-based regional analyst who preferred anonymity told IRIN the recent violence showed that the crisis in Somaliland had changed from being “political to one of security and stability”.

“It underscores the importance of political dialogue to defuse the situation,” he said. “For things to improve, the rule of law must be followed. This includes the holding of credible elections based on an agreed formula.”

“For any elections to be credible there must be changes in the electoral commission,” he said. “In the short-term there has to be some sort of short extension for the government, but if it does not hold elections in that time, then the other option would be a caretaker government.”

Nicole Stremlau, a research fellow with Oxford University’s Comparative Media Law and Policy Programme, said the recent violence did �not necessarily mean that the country will erupt into civil war”… Things in Somaliland appeared to be settling down after Saturday [12 September] as the negotiations are continuing.”

She said: “President Riyale believes his government should remain in power whereas the opposition argues a caretaker government should be put in place� “

Riyale’s term in office expires on 29 October.

Photo: Mohammed Amin Jibril/IRIN

A Street in Hargeisa, capital of the secessionist territory of Somaliland

More active role for media urged

A September report on the upcoming Somaliland elections, in which Stremlau and Gabobe are among the authors, said: “Just as Somaliland�s pre-election period is proving exceptionally divisive and conflictual, there are strong indications to suggest that if the election is as close as predicted there will be challenges in the post-election period.”

The report thus urges the media to be more proactive. “It [the media] can have a role in potentially exacerbating tensions and violence as well as mediating, appealing for calm and explaining the political developments to the population,” Stremlau said.

“In recent years there has been little international attention on Somaliland as the focus has been on the south. But Somaliland has made significant progress and has held competitive elections in the past.”

HRW report

Echoing this, a July report by Human Rights Watch (HRW), warned that 18 years of progress in security and governance were threatened by the delayed elections.

“Somaliland now faces a moment of real danger. The president may be intending to prolong his mandate without elections for as long as possible, and his administration risks doing lasting damage to Somaliland�s emerging democratic system in the process,” warned HRW.

HRW noted that there are also “severe limits to public willingness to openly challenge government actions for fear of threatening Somaliland�s hard-won peace and stability or damaging its chances of international recognition.”

It went on: “The president and his party have successfully exploited this widespread aversion to direct confrontation to occupy a space well past the legal limits of their power but short of what would trigger real public anger. Many Somalilanders lament that they are effectively ‘hostages to peace’.”

According to Stremlau, the international community must support local negotiation efforts: “The Somalilanders have shown an extraordinary ability to mediate themselves. This is part of Somaliland�s success, particularly compared with the south where international involvement has further complicated and prolonged the violence.”

maj-aw-ah/cb source.www.irinnews.org

Photo: David Swanson/IRIN

In today’s economic climate, many Cambodian men are at risk of being trafficked, experts warn

PHNOM PENH,� – Kou Channyyon’s story is typical of many young Cambodian men.

Desperate for work, he was trafficked to Malaysia with the promise of earning more than US$200 a month in a coffee factory.

But after he arrived, his passport was confiscated, and he found himself working 13 hours a day, with barely enough money to cover his living costs.

Barred from leaving the factory premises, he did not know if he would ever be able to escape.

“It was exhausting … I got very little sleep and was paid less than other workers,” the 23-year-old farmer’s son from southern Kandal Province, told IRIN.

According to the UN Inter-Agency Project on Human Trafficking (UNIAP), thousands of Cambodians are trafficked annually for the purpose of labour exploitation – a figure expected to increase given the global economic downturn.

“The risk factors for an increase are certainly there,” Paul Buckley, field operations coordinator for UNIAP, told IRIN in Bangkok, citing job losses, diminished remittances, and rising debt as key indicators.

Cambodian exports have been badly shaken by the global financial crisis, resulting in thousands of workers losing their jobs.

“This makes for an easier environment for traffickers to work in,” Buckley said, noting the need for more quantifiable data and research.

Earlier this year, the International Labour Organization (ILO) projected that job losses may surpass 45,000 this year, with a disproportionate burden falling on young workers, who already face few employment opportunities.

“Cambodia confronts a growing problem of providing decent work for this young population,” said Ya Navuth, executive director of Coordination of Action Research and Mobility (CARAM), a local NGO working to reduce illegal immigration to other countries.

The boats become virtual prisons on which the trafficking victims endure inhumane working conditions and physical abuse

“I think the government has to solve the problems of labour exploitation or illegal immigration by increasing the domestic market for labour,” Ya Navuth said.

Scant research on male victims

Trafficking victims have traditionally been identified by governments in Southeast Asia as women and children. There is scant research on the problem of male trafficking for labour exploitation, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

According to the Cambodian government, men seek longer term work mostly in Thailand� in construction, factories, transport, fishing and fish processing.

“Males continue to be another vulnerable group besides women and children,” UNIAP’s national project coordinator in Cambodia, Lim Tith, told IRIN.

“They suffer abuse and labour exploitation [in a bid] to support their family back home,” he said.

A 2008 UNIAP report said the main destination countries for Cambodian labour migrants are Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan.

Thailand is the top destination country for victims of human trafficking from Cambodia.

Photo: Kounila Keo/IRIN

Kou Channyyon was trafficked from Cambodia to Malaysia

Thai fishing boats

Some of the worst exploited are men and boys who end up on Thai long-haul fishing boats that ply the South China Sea for two years or more at a time, according to a UNIAP study in April 2009.

“The boats become virtual prisons on which the trafficking victims endure inhumane working conditions and physical abuse. Death at sea is frequently reported, sometimes at the hands of Thai boat captains,” the study notes.

Until mid-2008, Thailand’s anti-human trafficking legislation excluded men from being acknowledged as trafficking victims, which meant that they were counted as illegal migrants instead, and consequently deported.

Some 130,000 individuals are deported to Cambodia from Thailand each year, and evidence is readily available of cases of misidentification by Thai or Cambodian authorities of victims of trafficking departed from Thailand, said the 2008 UNIAP report.

“The fact that the problem remains hidden makes it harder for the NGOs and the government to work on it,” Lim Tith said.

New law

Cambodia has undertaken a series of measures to curb trafficking, including a 2008 law that recognizes men as potential trafficking victims for the first time, and provides a better legal framework to prosecute traffickers.

But given the fallout from the global economic crisis, tackling illegal immigration and trafficking may prove difficult for the Cambodian government because of its small budgets and limited human resources, said Lim Tith.

“What’s important now is that the government has a political will to solve the problems, although they have very limited options,” said Lim Tith.

“With the global economic crisis still continuing or [having an] effect, more men will surely continue to seek jobs abroad and be exploited by the financial crisis,” he said.

kk/ds/ey/cb source.www.irinnews.org