Photo: Adam Reynolds/IRIN

IDPs from Al Mazraq camp

SANAA,  – “One of the reasons I’m here is to try to give a bit more profile to a conflict, and its humanitarian consequences, which had been fairly low on the list of the international media’s priorities,” UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator John Holmes told IRIN at the end of his three-day visit to Yemen.

Some 150,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have been forced to flee their homes as a result of sporadic clashes since 2004 between the Yemeni government and a Shia rebel group in and around the northern governorate of Saada.

“We launched a flash appeal a few weeks ago. The funding for that is creeping up… but it’s still not enough. So we need to keep on drawing these issues to the attention of the international community and the donors in particular, and say that there are problems here that need to be funded,” he said.

As of 11 October, only 16 percent of the funds for the flash appeal had been received – most of which is going towards the establishment and management of IDP camps. But there are many other needs which have yet to be funded, according to aid officials.

At a press conference on 11 October, Holmes said that if the flash appeal requests are not met aid agencies would have to cut back on the provision of essential needs. However, he said he was “optimistic that [the UN] will not get into that position”.

The US, Saudi and Swiss governments are the biggest donors to the flash appeal, according to the UN. On 9 October the UK said it would pledge US$3.2 million to the appeal.

“The UK’s support will target those people in most urgent need, providing critical relief such as water, sanitation and food, as well as boosting UN capacity to respond to the broader humanitarian crisis,” said UK’s International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander in a statement.

Holmes said it was not all that unusual for funds to be slow in coming through in the initial period: “Sometimes people need to do some assessments of their own to see if they really think the situation warrants the aid we’re asking for,” he said.

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Photo: Tariq Saeed/IRIN

About 500 people are fleeing South Waziristan daily (file photo)

ISLAMABAD,  – Thousands of people have fled Pakistan’s South Waziristan territory adjacent to the Afghan border, as a military operation against Taliban militants got under way on 17 October.

A curfew was imposed in parts of Waziristan and troops began moving in, preventing others from fleeing. Action against militants had been anticipated for months.

A similar military campaign against militants in Swat District, North West Frontier Province (NWFP), ended in July, leading to the displacement of some 2.3 million people in the area.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in its latest humanitarian update on Pakistan said about 500 people were fleeing South Waziristan daily.

“For planning purposes, the estimate for a likely displacement from South Waziristan in the event of further military operations has been increased from 160,000 to 220,000 people. This includes the over 77,000 people already displaced, registered and verified in D.I. [Dera Ismail] Khan and Tank Districts,” OCHA said.

“In the last four days, we have estimates of about 120,000 people leaving South Waziristan. They join the 80,000 estimated to have been displaced previously,” Ariane Rummery, spokeswoman for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in Pakistan, told IRIN. She said the figures were based on estimates, “and there could be others we do not know about”.

As with previous waves of displacement from parts of NWFP, most of the displaced are staying with relatives or in rented accommodation, mainly in NWFP’s Dera Ismail Khan and Tank districts, neighbouring South Waziristan.

Photo: Google Maps

A map of Pakistan and the surrounding region highlighting North Waziristan (red) and South Waziristan (blue)

“I will move from here to my uncle’s home in Peshawar, because I want to avoid spending money. We have not heard about any camps and even if they come up, I do not want my family to live in a tent – possibly for weeks or months because the fighting could go on for some time,” said Haji Asadullah Khan, who came to the town of Tank from Wana, the principal city of South Waziristan, and has been living in a rented room since then.

“Insufficient preparations”

In a 16 October statement Amnesty International said its research teams on the ground had found “insufficient preparations for health facilities, supplies of food and drinkable water, and shelter for the displaced”.

“There has been growing unrest and even bombardment for weeks. I felt I had to take my family away,” said Ehsanullah Wazir, who is now in Dera Ismail Khan staying with his cousin. “We hope we will not have to stay for long. I am already concerned about the livestock I have left behind in our village because they could be stolen or killed with only my elderly parents to look after the animals,” he told IRIN from Dera Ismail Khan.

South Waziristan covers 11,585sqkm and has a population of some 500,000.

Maj-Gen Athar Abbas, the chief of the Inter Services Public Relations for the armed forces, told the media: “The operation was launched early in the morning on Saturday [17 October]. Both air and ground troops are taking part.”

NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain told IRIN: “The government is providing all possible assistance to the displaced population”. He said “thousands of families” had been displaced, and that this number could increase.

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Photo: Nancy Palus/IRIN

People fleeing Diabir, on the outskirts of Ziguinchor, in September 2009

DAKAR,  – Aid workers are evaluating the needs of families recently displaced by armed conflict in Casamance, southern Senegal. Some of the displaced persons have joined families who were themselves forced out of their villages a decade ago.

Aid groups in Casamance face a context of irregular and multiple displacements, sporadic armed conflict, uncertainty over landmines and increasingly violent crime.

“It is challenging to define people’s exact needs, since the host population is itself in a vulnerable position,” Christina de Bruin, head of UN Children’s Fund in Casamance, told IRIN. “Even if newly displaced families have somewhere to go in Ziguinchor, their presence further impoverishes host families; all this has to be taken into consideration.”

Maurice Grundbacher of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Casamance said it is generally after some time, as host families’ resources become increasingly stretched, that aid needs become clearer.

“The important thing is to see the situation after a couple of weeks [of the displaced living with families] when conditions can become difficult.”

The transitory nature of population movements in Casamance also affects aid decisions. In early September hundreds of people fled their homes just outside of the main city Ziguinchor because armed groups had infiltrated their villages. Aid agencies began mobilising relief supplies. Days later many people timidly returned so they could tend to their crops.

Given the sporadic and unpredictable nature of violence in the region, many people regularly shuttle between where they sleep and where they farm.

“One of the things we take into consideration when we assess needs of IDPs [internally displaced persons] is, can they get to their fields,” said Marc Henrottay, head of World Food Programme in Casamance.

Insecurity

While the recent violence has not forced drastic changes in humanitarian operations, the new conditions put personnel and beneficiary security at the top of aid agencies’ agendas, aid workers said.

“In Casamance extreme caution must always drive our operations because there is great uncertainty,” WFP’s Henrottay said. “It is often quite difficult to verify information about the security situation.”

WFP is considering changes in school feeding operations in areas recently hit by insecurity, he said. One option is to deliver food to an area where beneficiaries would pick it up, but that exposes them to risk. “On the one hand we have children living in food insecurity; on the other hand delivering food might pose a risk [to them].”

Another option would be to have students transfer to other schools where WFP provides meals, he said. Throughout the area it is common for children to attend school outside their home villages because of unrest.

In recent weeks insecurity has hampered the humanitarian demining operations of Handicap International, according to head of mission Camille Aubourg. “It is challenging because one is never certain of deploying from one day to the next,” she told IRIN.

“Uncertainty is the permanent condition. The situation is not bad enough to stop [aid operations] altogether, but not good enough to work at all times without restrictions,” Aubourg said. “Stopping demining and other aid now would be a tragedy for this region and its inhabitants who are the first victims of this situation.”

Photo: Nancy Palus/IRIN

Children at a pre-school in Ziguinchor, where WFP provides meals

Gains

The latest violence comes as many returned communities are working to rebuild their villages after years of displacement. Aid workers say the fresh unrest threatens the gains of the past few years.

Abdoulaye Diallo, technical adviser for GTZ-Procas, a Germany-funded development organization in Casamance, said it is essential that the progress made by returning populations in recent years not be lost.

“Many communities have put immense time and effort into healing, talking, forgiving one another and moving on to rebuild their villages,” Diallo told IRIN. “When violence increases new fear and mistrust follow; it is critical that we work with communities to help them adapt to the evolving situation and take measures to avoid setbacks.”

He added: “There are tools for adapting to the security situation and helping local communities do so. The essential thing is that aid groups do not abandon this population.”

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Raila leads rush for Southern Sudan oil

by John Njiraini

The political and economic configuration of the East Africa region is set for a critical economic transformation as countries engage in an unprecedented oil race — even as Kenya declares it is ‘smelling’ oil.

Prime minister Raila Odinga, who is currently in China on official duties, has successfully brokered a deal that would see oil from Southern Sudan exported through Kenya after refinement at the port of exit.

The deal and the recent discovery of oil in Uganda puts Kenya at a strategic position to claim a slice of the billions of dollars from oil revenue to transform her struggling economy that almost ground to a halt after the disputed General Election of 2007.

But this strategy appears to be running parallel to the muted talk in Government that a statement on discovery of oil on Kenyan soil could be coming before end-month. Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi was this week quoted by a regional paper saying: “In a matter of days we could be celebrating. God-willing, I shall be announcing an historical discovery at the end of this month.” It is believed to be another Chinese venture, at Isiolo, which is 5 kilometres deep. Kiraitu added: “We have done our homework and all indications are that Kenya will join Uganda in celebrating the status of a new oil producer.”

But with the biggest oil companies in hot pursuit of the few remaining major energy players, and just in case the dream of a Kenya with oil wells is a stillborn, Raila is driving a harder bargain to position the country as a gateway to the unexploited oil riches of Uganda and Southern Sudan.

Raila says Kenya, which has no oil of its own and could benefit from the disadvantaged position of both oil baskets as landlocked, turned to China as a second option. The initial agreement was the Sh270 billion deals with Qatar in exchange for 40,000 hectares of land to grow crops; but the deal was signed between the two states.

Chinese companies

But in what could make or break the economic prosperity of Kenya, Uganda and Sudan, countries in the region are already plotting on how to maximise benefits from the ‘black gold’.

In recent days, Kenya, Uganda and Southern Sudan have been cutting deals with mainly Chinese companies in what is being interpreted as an oil race for petrodollars.

Kenya, which until recently has been a passive player, has joined the race with excitement on the prospects of striking its own oil, but could still cash in from the petrol fortunes by providing infrastructure should her wells turn out to be dry.

Create employment

Raila’s successful negotiations with the Chinese Government would see oil from Southern Sudan exported through Kenya.

The Chinese Government has agreed to fund the construction of key facilities that include rail and road network, a pipeline, and refinery. “This deal is good for us because it means Kenya will benefit from transportation charges and creation of employment,” said Mwendia Nyaga, the managing director of state-owned National Oil Corporation (Nock).

Raila himself said when the deal went through: “The Chinese offer the full package.” He was referring to the fact that China’s offers a one-stop shop in terms of the financing and technical expertise with which its banks and construction firms have placated Africa.

Conservative estimates show that Kenya could earn a Sh7.5 billion annually for transporting 2.5 million tonnes of oil from Southern Sudan through Kenya.

Necessary infrastructure

This is based on projections that Southern Sudan exports 50,000 barrels per day, which translates to 2.5 million tonnes per year and using the fact that Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) charges $40 per every ton that passes through its facilities.

According to experts, the immediate challenges are in building the necessary infrastructure to connect the two countries considering that a massive $1.6 billion (Sh125 billion) is required to build the 1,600 km pipeline alone from Southern Sudan to Lamu.

Though the most feasible strategy would be to build a pipeline from Southern Sudan and another one from Uganda to meet at around Lake Turkana and proceed to Lamu as one pipeline, huge egos among countries is hampering co-operation. “The investments required are enormous and there is need for close co-operation among the three countries,” said Patrick Obath, the chairman of Kenya Private Sector Alliance (Kepsa).

The decision to go alone could see the region become a haven for oil facilities that are largely underutilised. According to Obath, construction of multiple refineries and pipelines creates challenges for the region and could end up being a costly affair in the long run.

“You don’t need facilities that would be idle most of the time,” he said. This view gives Kenya unenviable position owing to its location to host the two oil rich neighbours.

Only recently, the Government of Southern Sudan passed a resolution to safeguard its oil resources starting with the construction of a $1.5 billion refinery with a capacity to process 50,000 barrels per day.

Uganda question

Coming soon after the launch of a report dubbed ‘Fuelling Mistrust’ by Global Witness that said Southern Sudan has not been getting a fair share of oil revenues from the Khartoum Government, the move has been interpreted as preparing to secede.

Southern Sudan is preparing for a referendum in 2011 to decide whether it should be an independent state from the North in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in Nairobi in 2005.

Then there is Uganda, which has been complicating the political relations in the region with chest thumping since discovering huge deposits of oil in Lake Albert Rift Basin.

The country is currently undertaking a feasibility study for construction of a refinery with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day at an estimated cost of $2 billion.

However, being a landlocked nation, Uganda must still construct a pipeline to export the refined product is torn between using Kenya or Tanzania for political reasons.

Revive her refinery

Though building a pipeline to connect the oil rich country to Port of Mombasa is cheaper, Uganda is contemplating building one to the Port of Dar-es-Salaam due to political instabilities in Kenya going by the post-election violence last year.

And as Kenya undertakes the upgrading of the Kenya Petroleum Refinery after selling 50 per cent to Essar of India, Tanzania is seeking for an investor to revive her refinery, which is currently acting as a bulk storage facility.

With demand for oil in the region estimated to be around 250,000 barrels per month, there is high likelihood that most of the facilities could become a waste of money in building them.

And although the demand for oil in the region has been on a steady growth in recent years, the rate of economic growth is not in tandem with the production of the refineries.

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Some Kenyan students at Hope University in Bujumbura, Burundi. Photo/ANDREW LIMO

By ANDREW LIMO

Burundi, which formally joined the East African Community (EAC) in June 2007, is becoming a popular destination for Kenyans looking for jobs and business deals beyond their own borders.

Kenya has established an embassy at the PTA Bank building in downtown Bujumbura manned by a small staff.
Kenya Commercial Bank is headed there to open a branch. Oil giant Kobil was there last week saying it is establishing its presence there. There is also talk of a railway line being extended from Kampala to Bujumbura.

Benjamin Mweri, Kenya’s Ambassador to Burundi, says the country, like Southern Sudan, is an emerging market and Kenya has high stakes in rebuilding it because of the strategic position of Burundi and the countries’ long relationship.