SOUTH SUDAN: Worsening food crisis

Photo: Hannah McNeish/IRIN

Short supply: Conflict in Jonglei state has had a drastic effect on food security

JUBA,  – An already dire food situation in South Sudan could deteriorate amid growing economic problems, food shortages and a mass influx of people fleeing Sudan in the next two months, agencies warn.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) said that in South Sudan’s first year of statehood, half the population of about nine million people could face hunger.

Their Crop and Food Security Assessment report shows that for 2012, 4.7 million people will be food-insecure, up 1.4 million from last year, and the number of severely food-insecure will hit almost one million from 900,000 in 2011.

South Sudan will only produce about half the food it needs, with a cereal deficit of 470,000MT due to erratic rains and internal conflict displacing many away from fields.

Last month, a huge wave of ethnic violence in South Sudan’s largest state, Jonglei, affected more than 140,000 people and until peace talks are organized, the situation remains precarious. 

In addition to a poor harvest, huge waves of returnees from Sudan or refugees fleeing violence across the border have compounded food shortages.

“If conflict continues to cause major population displacements and food prices keep rising, the report estimates that the number of people who are severely food-insecure could double,” a joint FAO-WFP statement warned.

“This is a rapidly approaching crisis that the world cannot afford to ignore,” said Chris Nikoi, WFP’s country director in South Sudan.

South Sudan’s Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Joseph Lual Achuil, urged people to try to salvage what they could from the planting season before the rains come or 1.7 million people would be “severely affected by starvation”.

“If we don’t do our best in order to rescue the situation now, 4.7 million will be without food, and if they are without food before the rain, after the rain what is going to happen? We are going to have a disaster,” he said.

Time and money running out

Food prices have skyrocketed since major trading partner Sudan closed its border months before South Sudan gained independence, with food from neighbouring countries hit by rising fuel prices, transportation costs and illegal taxation. 

George Mabany, an aid worker in Bentiu, state capital of the oil-rich Unity state near Sudan’s border, said prices had tripled since May, when Sudanese troops occupied the contested region of Abyei and the borders closed. 

Mabany said 1kg of grain had doubled in price to 100 pounds (US$28) as all food was now being trucked up from Uganda. The price of 50kg of sugar had tripled to 85 pounds ($24), he said.

Items such as eggs and onions were no longer available and while the market had a small amount of fruits and vegetables, nobody could afford them.

Photo: Hannah McNeish/IRIN

Every grain counts: An aid worker collects food spilt from food aid sacks

Depreciation of the South Sudanese pound has also caused a hike in prices. Dependent on oil for 98 percent of its revenues, South Sudan’s decision in late January to halt oil production in a bitter row with Sudan over transit fees could spark rampant inflation.

WFP only has about a third of the $250m needed to reach a planned 2.7m people this year, and only has a few months until the rains start to bring in enough food before large parts of the country are inaccessible by truck.

“Come May, the logistics capacity of moving large stocks around doesn’t exist any more because of the rains and the poor logistics of the country,” said Ramiro Lopes da Silva, deputy director of WFP. “At the moment, we don’t have enough money even for what we have planned already.” 

“The situation is dire, and we are doing everything we can to be ready, but we are running out of time,” Nikoi said.

Fleeing starvation

Up to 500,000 people in two of Sudan’s war-torn border states could flee southwards when the rains come and there is nothing left from last year’s poor harvest.

Conflict broke out in South Kordofan in June when government forces clashed with those formerly loyal to South Sudan, and spread to neighbouring Blue Nile in September.

Sudan President Omar al-Bashir has refused to allow aid agencies into conflict areas, and frequent aerial bombardment and violence have forced more than 417,000 people to flee their homes and fields, according to the UN.

Some 80,000 people have already crossed into South Sudan, many suffering from malnutrition, malaria and pneumonia after months of hiding in the bush and scavenging food.

Princeton Lyman, US envoy to the two Sudans, has warned of an imminent famine if there is no intervention.

“What you have now is a sense of urgency. In a couple of months we are in what is typically the hunger season, both in Sudan and South Sudan, and obviously the impact on those populations is potentially very serious,” Da Silva said.

Rights group Amnesty International said that even six months ago, people scattered in the bush were surviving on dwindling food supplies and wild fruits.

“Civilians continue to live in precarious conditions with insufficient food, shelter or access to healthcare and in fear of being bombed. It is essential for the civilian population from these two areas to receive impartial humanitarian assistance,” AI’s UN ambassador Renzo Pomi said.

“There is a sense of urgency that the window for an effective intervention with the populations where they are is narrowing,” said Da Silva on negotiations with the North.

WFP has also been stopped from accessing stocks in Sudan to bring south of the border, so it is trucking food all the way from the Kenyan port of Mombasa.

Fears of mass deportations

Aid agencies are also extremely concerned about the fate of up to 700,000 southerners still thought to be living in the north, who face a deadline to get legal or get out by 8 April.

As relations sour between the two nations, there are fears that hundreds of thousands of people could descend on the impoverished south within months.

But provisions for how southerners can legalize themselves have yet to be made, while Khartoum has closed the port of Kosti where barges packed with thousands of people leave for the South.

South Sudan says trains have also been prevented from leaving, while the other options of flying and trucking people through dangerous territory filled with mines are unworkable for the numbers and time limit.

The UN has appealed for $763m for South Sudan in 2012, but says more will likely be needed with the expectation of more crises, while aid agencies are already struggling with the current caseload.

“Of course we’re not ready for any kind of major movement from the north to south, considering what we’re dealing with in South Sudan already – capacity is already extremely stretched,” UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, Valerie Amos, said recently.

“I think that everyone needs to recognize that if we do have to face those challenges in the next two to three months, our resources will be extremely stretched,” she added.

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source www.irinnews.org

SECURITY: Questions over progress against the LRA

Photo: UN Photo/Tim McKulka

South Sudanese civilians displaced by LRA attacks in 2009

JOHANNESBURG, – The US believes its military intervention in central Africa in pursuit of Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is having the desired effect, reducing attacks and improving civilian protection – although analysts have reservations.

In 2011, the US deployed about 100 troops to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), South Sudan and Uganda to assist the region’s military forces in killing or capturing Kony and his senior command, following President Barack Obama Administration’s announcement in November 2010 to deal decisively with the armed group.

Karl Wycoff, the US deputy assistant secretary for African affairs, in a telephone briefing on 22 February, told IRIN: “Over recent months the military of Uganda, CAR, DRC and South Sudan have continued to carry out operations against the LRA. We are supporting them in these efforts. We are providing logistical support to help the Ugandan military sustain its forward operations against the LRA. We are funding, for example, some airlift, fuel and other transport support for their troops. In the DRC we trained and equipped a Congolese battalion that is now operating in LRA-affected areas of the DRC and we are also working with the UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO [UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC].”

About US$40 million has been provided by the US so far in support of the Ugandan military effort.

MONUSCO and Congolese forces were involved in recent operations to prevent any repeats of the LRA’s 2008 and 2009 Christmas massacres, he said, and the US was also providing support to CAR and South Sudan military forces.

“With our support, these four military forces continue to make progress in reducing the LRA numbers and keeping them from regrouping. We believe it is critical the militaries in the region continue to work together to keep the pressure on the LRA and protect their own citizens. As we have seen in the past, the LRA will exploit any reduction in military or diplomatic pressure to regroup and rebuild their forces,” Wycloff said.

Still dancing to Kony’s tune

He cited UN statistics saying that in 2011 there were 278 attacks attributed to the LRA and more than 300 abductions, but in the second half of the year, which coincided with the deployment of US troops, incidents “appear” to have decreased – although about 465,000 people in the region were displaced or living as refugees in 2011 because of LRA activities.

Rear Admiral Brian Losey, commander of Special Operations Command Africa, believed the drop in attacks was a result of the US and local military operations and the “numbers of [LRA] fighters have been reduced to 200 or so… We do not have a specific timeline with this mission, nor is it open-ended.”

The important thing now is what Kony is actually doing and as far as anyone can tell, he is still in control and calling the tune the rest of us dance to

However, Phil Lancaster, one of the authors of the 2011 International Working Group on the LRA report, Diagnostic Study of the Lord’s Resistance Army and former head of the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration division of the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUC), predecessor to MONUSCO, told IRIN, “Estimates of core numbers have bounced between 250 and 150 for the past 18 months.

“He [Wycoff] doesn’t know any more than anyone else what is going on inside the LRA… The important thing now is what Kony is actually doing and as far as anyone can tell, he is still in control and calling the tune the rest of us dance to.”

The LRA, which relies on forced recruitment, and more often than not the use of child soldiers, to bolster its ranks, has largely operated with a core strength of about 250 fighters from its inception in the 1980s, say analysts.

A 22 February briefing note by the Small Arms Survey (SAS), Lord’s Resistance Army Update said although in 2012 there had been no reported attacks in South Sudan or CAR since 18 January, “raids in northeastern DRC have increased this year”.

“At least 12 attacks were reported in the first two weeks of February, all in or near areas where LRA groups have attacked during the last three years. Ngilima, Bangadi, Dungu and areas around Faradje have been consistently targeted by LRA combatants, indicating a return to old bases, particularly in Garamba National Park,” the update said.

Lack of regional cooperation

The SAS update also questioned the level of cooperation between regional forces and the DRC, considering President Joseph Kabila’s government antipathy towards Ugandan troops on its soil. Of the four contributing military forces, Ugandans are viewed as the most professional.

“Ugandan troops are not officially allowed to enter the DRC, even though the Congolese army units located in areas with an LRA presence are notoriously incapable of dealing with the rebels… This refusal to allow Ugandan troops, and by association US advisers, to enter the DRC has impeded the Americans’ drive to remove top LRA commanders from the battlefield,” the SAS update said.

Resolve, a US-based advocacy NGO, said in a February 2012 report, Peace Can Be. President Obama’s chance to help end LRA atrocities in 2012, questioned Uganda’s commitment to continued operations against the LRA, as its border regions were no longer threatened by the armed group and since 2009 it has withdrawn more than half its soldiers dedicated to the pursuit of Kony and his senior commanders.

Uganda’s military is also heavily committed to the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which in recent days has seen a renewed emphasis by the international community to resolving the conflict in the country.

Measuring success against the LRA in terms of reduced attacks was also questioned.

“In the second half of 2011, the LRA dramatically reduced its attacks, particularly those involving killings of civilians. Regional military forces interpret these trends as a sign that the rebel group’s capacity has been severely deci¬mated. However, the LRA’s proven ability to protect its core commanders and to regenerate itself if given the op¬portunity should inspire caution.

“LRA commanders may be intentionally reducing violence against civilians in the hopes that renewed US and regional initiatives lose mo¬mentum. If current initiatives fail to break apart the LRA’s command structure, the group will be poised to survive indefinitely and eventually replenish its strength in the tri-border region,” the report said.

Resolve said the US commitment was also threatened by the 2012 presidential campaign as “the Obama Administration may encounter domestic pressure to withdraw the US military advisers before they have achieved their objectives.”

Among Resolve’s recommendations to end the “predations” of the LRA, was “convincing” Uganda to devote more troops to the fight, increasing “intelligence and aerial mobility support to the Ugandans”, and “especially to ensure that Congo [DRC] allows the Ugandan military conditional access to Congolese territory affected by the LRA”.

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ZIMBABWE: Deportations rob vulnerable of remittances

Photo: Anthony Kaminju/IRIN

Undocumented migrants about to be deported from South Africa

HARARE,  – Thousands of Zimbabwean households are feeling the effects of lost remittances from family members forcibly returned from neighbouring South Africa since that country resumed deportations of undocumented Zimbabwean migrants in October 2011.

Makaita Gwati, 60, from rural Chirumhanzi, about 90km from the provincial capital of Masvingo in southeastern Zimbabwe, relied on the income her son and daughter sent from South Africa to support the rest of the family, until both were deported in November last year.

“I counted on them for money to buy food and other essential items, but now that they are here and they can’t find jobs, I don’t know how we will survive,” Gwati told IRIN.

In the last two years, Chirumhanzi has experienced poor rainfall and Gwati has harvested little from her plot of land, forcing her to buy food to feed her family. The remittances from South Africa had also helped support her five grandchildren and pay for medical costs.

“I am worried that given my poor state of health, there is no more money to send me to hospital. As I speak, the [grand]children’s school fees have not been paid and we have been forced to have one meal a day,” she said.

I counted on them for money to buy food and other essential items, but now that they are here and they can’t find jobs, I don’t know how we will survive

Zimbabwe suffered a decade-long economic crisis characterized by a near collapse of industry, hyperinflation, critical shortages of commodities, poor social services and the migration of millions of Zimbabweans to neighbouring countries and other parts of the world.

The formation of a coalition government and the adoption of multiple currencies to replace the weak Zimbabwean dollar in early 2009 set the economy on a recovery path, but levels of unemployment are still high and large numbers of Zimbabweans continue to try their luck in South Africa.

In April 2009, the South African government announced a moratorium on deportations of undocumented Zimbabwean migrants and the following year gave them the opportunity to regularize their stay by applying for work and study permits through the Zimbabwe Documentation Project (ZDP). The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 1-1.5 million Zimbabwean migrants are living in South Africa, but only 275,000 had applied to be regularized through the ZDP by the 31 December 2010 deadline.

IOM, WFP assistance

Since the deportations resumed in October 2011, IOM has helped nearly 10,000 deportees passing through the reception and support centre it mans at the Beitbridge border post with food, medical care and free transport home.

According to Felon Murapa, a communications officer with IOM, the organization is prepared to provide similar assistance to as many as 4,000 returnees a month.

The bigger problem for both the government and the donor community will be finding ways to provide longer-term assistance to poor households that depended on remittances from breadwinners who had sought economic refuge in South Africa.

UN World Food Programme (WFP) country director Felix Bamezon described remittances as “an important source of income for vulnerable people, particularly those affected by seasonal food shortages… Most returnees are coming to food insecure hosts or homes and this will certainly put a strain on the already burdened homes,” he said.

A 2010 Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe report indicated that Zimbabweans in the diaspora remitted more than US$263 million through formal means alone; most migrants in nearby countries, however, opt to send money through informal channels such as friends and relatives.

Starting in February, WFP will collaborate with IOM to provide food commodities to deportees coming through the Beitbridge reception centre.

WFP will also include deportees and their dependants in its ongoing programme targeting vulnerable households with food during periods of severe hunger.

Pregnant and breastfeeding returnees may also benefit from WFP’s health and nutrition programme, but the increased numbers of people needing help are likely to strain the organization’s limited resources.

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 source www.irinnews.org