GLOBAL: Tinkering with the science of climate change

Photo: Royal Society/IPCC

An illustration of some of the geo-engineering ideas

NAIROBI,  – Huge mirrors in space, petrifying carbon dioxide, algae farms, and lots of white paint – these are some of the ideas being proposed to offset global warming amid fears that temperatures might rise by more than two degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Global warming is driven by an increase in human-generated greenhouse gases (GHG), such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone and methane, by burning coal, oil and natural gas. The gases trap heat in the atmosphere, keeping the planet warmer than it would be otherwise.

With past attempts at persuading countries to commit to reducing their GHG emissions inconclusive, “some scientists are beginning to feel that they have an answer”, says Richard Samson Odingo, a University of Nairobi lecturer and former vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“Whether or not we can tinker with science and intervene realistically is the issue.”

The main technologies being considered are Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Solar Radiation Management (SRM).

CDR entails removing carbon dioxide, CO2, from the atmosphere via sequestration, capture or ocean fertilization; CO2 emissions are said to be the dominant cause of global warming.

Methods include:

• Photo: Ann Weru/IRIN

  The oceans could help absorb more carbon dioxide

  CO2 capture and storage – Scientists are considering capturing CO2 from industrial plants and burying it at the bottom of the ocean, in salt mines, disused oil wells or other geologically stable areas, for 1,000 years. The logistics and cost-effectiveness of this CO2 capture, compression (CO2 liquefies at pressure), transport and injection is an issue, as are potential leakages.

• Ocean storage – This is considered the largest potential sink for man-made CO2 but there are environmental concerns; evaluating the results of such an intervention is also a likely challenge.
• Ocean fertilization – scientists are considering the possibility of adding nutrients such as iron to promote the growth of microscopic algae in the ocean; the algae pull CO2 from the atmosphere. But there are concerns that this could generate other greenhouse gases and there are calls for bigger, longer studies. “Experiments are not without their own risks however, and the larger they are, the riskier they become,” warns a recent Oxford University blog.
• Turning CO2 into stone – scientists are studying if it is possible to use natural chemical reactions underground to solidify excess CO2. Gases generated by a geothermal power plant outside Reykjavik in Iceland will in April be pumped back into the Earth and it is hoped that natural reactions with the basalt should turn the CO2 into a solid carbonate.
• Locking CO2 into rock – In Oman, geochemists are examining how the rock peridotite reacts rapidly with water and CO2 to form solid carbonates to find out if the same process can be harnessed for the storage of industrial CO2.
• Afforestation, reforestation and avoidance of deforestation – forests help in absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere but processes such as deforestation and land clearance for croplands and pasture add to GHGs.
• Biochar – as an alternative to letting biomass degrade naturally, in the process emitting CO2, processes that heat the biomass under oxygen reduction are being considered to produce a solid material that locks in carbon for years and can be added to soils to help them retain water and nutrients.

Solar Radiation Management aims at reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth and include:

• Increasing surface reflectivity – among the techniques are painting infrastructure white and covering deserts with reflective material.
• Increasing the reflectivity of clouds above oceans – there are suggestions that whitening clouds over parts of the ocean could help in cooling the Earth.
• Injecting chemicals into the atmosphere – it has been proposed that certain chemicals could be released into the second major layer of the Earth’s atmosphere to help scatter sunlight back into space.
• Light shields/deflectors – scientists are exploring the use of shields placed in space to reflect or deflect solar radiation.
• Large-scale reforestation – Forests help in cooling the surface in the tropics and sub-tropics while warming the surface in higher latitudes as they are much darker than snow and thus absorb more solar radiation.

Whether or not we can tinker with science and intervene realistically is the issue.

While SRM techniques have been proposed as possibly useful in case of an emergency as they are fast acting, to avoid a climate “tipping point”, there are concerns they could create other problems, such as changing precipitation patterns.

Odingo asks: “When you put reflectors in the atmosphere, how does that interfere with agriculture and forests? All of these need to be studied.”

According to critics, there is a need to keep in touch with the emerging geo-engineering scientific debate and to comment on the feasibility of the same, bearing in mind that the science may be a result of over-confidence in modelling.

There remains a need for countries to increase efforts towards mitigating and adapting to climate change, and in particular to agreeing to global emissions reductions of at least 50 percent on 1990 levels by 2050 and more because, “Nothing now known about geo-engineering options [CDR and SRM] gives any reason to diminish these efforts”, states the Royal Society.

But, geo-engineering may be needed if the apparent lack of political will to significantly reduce GHG emissions does not change, notes John Shepherd, a Fellow of the Royal Society.

There is thus a need to “work outside our national borders, bringing together interested parties from around the globe to debate the issues of geo-engineering, agree appropriate governance structures and ensure that any research is undertaken in a safe, transparent and socially acceptable manner”, states Shepherd. “The question of whether solar geo-engineering will prove to be helpful or harmful will largely depend on how humanity can govern the issue and its political implications, and avoid unilateral action.”

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source www.irinnews.org

BURKINA FASO: Government wants more aid for Malian refugees

Photo: Brahima Ouedraogo/IRIN

Some Malian refugee families are now in Ouagadougou, the Burkinabe capital. Some who were living in the city’s main soccer stadium have now been moved to Somgande, just north of the capital

OUAGADOUGOU,  – With nearly 20,000 Malian refugees now in Burkina Faso, according to Burkina Minister of Communications Alain Traore, and up to 800 more crossing the border each day, the government says it urgently needs more help.

The most urgent need is for “shelter, food and medicine” in the country’s northern Sahel Region, said Denis Ouedraogo, coordinator of the National Commission for Refugees.

“The government has done everything it can and the local authorities have used up all their resources,” he added.

Since 10 February, the government has provided blankets, kettles, mats and tents to some 4,000 refugees. Now, with the increased numbers, it is fully stretched.

Ouedraogo said measures such as increasing the number of wells, and preventing cattle theft by providing security, were needed to prevent tension between the host population and refugees. Local people rear their cattle on the same land being used by refugees.

On 24 February, a group of 600 refugees living in a Ouagadougou soccer stadium were relocated temporarily to a Ministry of Social Welfare and National Solidarity training centre at Somgande on the northern outskirts of the city. The government is providing them with food and water. Some 200 refugee families (about 1,000 people) are in the capital. The chairman of the Committee for Assistance to Mali Refugees, Ousmane Ag Dala, said more aid would be sent to the camp at Somgande.

“This is the first time that these refugees have been cared for,” said Al Mansour Ag Mahmoud, an independent researcher on health and social anthropology and currently a refugee working for the Committee.

“Our children need to go to school, and there are big families who are packed in houses in Ouagadougou,” he added.

Forgotten?

Mahmoud said over 800 refugees in western Burkina Faso “were being forgotten”. Some have been sheltered by host families while others are trying to cope on their own but have little or no money.

”We really need more food to assist the most vulnerable [in the Sahel Region] because they are helpless,” said Modeste Konkobo, humanitarian officer with the Burkina Faso Red Cross.

Konkobo spoke from Inabao, 10km from the border with Mali in the Sahel Region, where he was distributing food to refugees being relocated to Serelio transit camp, Oudalan Province. He said more food was needed; non-food items were being brought up from Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Roger Ebanda, head of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) office in Burkina Faso based in Ougadougou, said a three-person team from the agency had just completed registration of refugees in the city and had moved on to two camps in the north (Ingani in Soum Province, and Goudebo in Seno Province) to continue the process. UNHCR was recruiting more people to help with the caseload. Ebanda added that it would take “millions of dollars” to rehabilitate the two camps.

Pressure

Burkina Faso’s Sahel Region is hosting 16,000 refugees, mainly in the provinces of Soum and Oudalan, said Boureima Yiougo, governor of Sahel Region. He said the area was beginning to feel the pressure of the refugees, now arriving at a rate of 800 a day.

“There are a large number of people arriving yet relief efforts are weak,” he added.

He said vaccination campaigns against meningitis had been conducted and Vitamin A had been given to an unspecified number of children.

Meanwhile, Bibata Sankara, humanitarian officer with the World Food Programme (WFP) sub-office in Dori, capital of Sahel Region, said WFP had set up food distribution centres in 723 schools and 74 health centres in the region. WFP is working closely with the Burkina Faso Red Cross to help refugees too weak to reach health centres. 

Ansare Mohamed, who works with the Committee for Assistance to Mali refugees and is in charge of the Mentao site in Soum, which has 1,250 refugees, said a Médecins Sans Frontières-France team had just brought in medicines.

”Things are moving slowly but in the far north they have not received anything yet,” Mohamed said in reference to Inabao and Tinakoff close to the Mali border.

bo/oss/cb source www.irinnews.org

HORN OF AFRICA: Drought warning prompts call for early action

Photo: Kate Holt/IRIN

Drought and related famine sparked massive displacement in Somalia in 2011

KIGALI,  – Drought is likely to return to Somalia and other parts of the Horn of Africa over the next three months, say regional climate scientists meeting in the Rwandan capital, Kigali. The forecast comes just weeks after the UN declared the Somali “famine” over.

“There is a high probability of drought returning to the Greater Horn of Africa…Poor rains are a definite in all of Somalia, Djibouti, northern Kenya, southern, eastern and northeastern Ethiopia,” said Laban Ogallo, director of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which provides forecasts for the Horn.

“We have put the message out there. It is now up to governments, civil society and the media to prepare… for the worst-case scenario even if the worst does not happen. There is no harm in being prepared,” he said. “We must realize many of these areas are already facing the cumulative impact of several droughts.”

Youcef Ait Chellouche, deputy regional coordinator of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, said the coping mechanism of people in most of these areas who experienced severe drought in 2010-2011, is almost non-existent. In the coming days, he said, he would be meeting disaster risk managers from various countries and agencies to draw up a plan for early action.

“We cannot wait for people to show up in Dadaab [refugee camp in eastern Kenya] yet again. We have to take preventive action now. We need to find ways to secure livestock and provide cash transfers to people now. These are some of the lessons from last year’s drought,” he added.

It took scientists three days of brainstorming over rainfall and temperature data, the status of ocean currents and the strength of the La Niña to make the forecast at the 30th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum in Kigali.

Increased cyclonic activity recorded over the Indian Ocean in the past few weeks was one of the major factors drawing moisture away from the Horn, explained Ogallo. “The Indian Ocean is rather warm at the moment and will continue to be over the next few months.” He cited the recent cyclones recorded near Madagascar.

Climate scientists Andrew Colman with the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre and Vadlamani Kumar from the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the residual effects of a dying La Niña were also a factor in possible poor rains over the Horn.

La Niña occurs when the surface of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean – the world’s largest body of water – cools, and has a climatic impact in other regions of the world. A particularly strong La Niña was recorded in 2010-2011 and parts of the Horn experienced their driest period in 60 years.

“We are in a transition phase. It [La Niña] seems to be dying out but it always gets a bit chaotic now [weather-wise] during such time,” said Peter Ambenje, deputy director of Kenya’s meteorological department.

“Near normal to below normal rains” – meaning the outlook is not very hopeful – have also been forecast for southern, eastern and northern Tanzania; Burundi; Rwanda; Uganda; and western and southern Kenya.

High temperatures

“We have already recorded some of the highest temperatures ever in the past 13 years in northern Kenya in January 2012,” said Ambenje. The government, he said, was already planning contingency measures. “People will need water and their livestock will need to be secured.”

The US Agency for International Development’s FEWS NET said people should expect erratic rain in southern Somalia and southeastern Kenya. It would be releasing a detailed outlook in the coming weeks.

Ethiopia’s pastoralists in the Somali Region and the agro-pastoralist communities in southern Oromia could be in for hard times ahead, and The Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region (SNNPR), one of Ethiopia’s poorest, is also likely to face a drought, say climate scientists.

However, Dula Shanko, head of Ethiopia Meteorological Department, said they expected the drought to be less severe than last year, as most parts of Ethiopia had received good rains towards the end of 2011.

Djibouti is already facing water shortages, said Osman Saad Said, chief of the country’s Met Division. At least one in eight people there was in need of emergency aid in 2011, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “We are already drilling more and more bore-wells in the city,” he said.

Many disaster experts cited the slow response by governments and donors to the early warning forecasts of the 2010-2011 Horn drought.

Abbas Gullet, secretary-general of the Kenya Red Cross, said his organization had responded to the warning and launched an appeal in early 2011, but it had not managed to raise sufficient resources as the government had failed to ring official alarm bells. Only after it went to the people later in the year as part of the “Kenya 4 Kenyans” campaign were sizeable funds raised.

One of the problems highlighted was the lack of linkage between early warning and early action. “There is no framework that allows the trigger of funds when the early warning bell is sounded,” said one aid worker.

“Governments and people must take pre-emptive action on their own accord and not wait for donors to provide funds,” said another.

“It will be interesting to see how humanitarian actors – and donors – will factor this information into their decision-making, what they will be doing on this basis in the next few weeks,” said Maarten Van Aalst, director of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, and co-ordinating lead author of the summary of the special report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change (SREX) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2011.

“Given the moderate strength of the forecast signal, I think the best options would be no-regrets investments, particularly aimed at high-risk areas still suffering from the current crisis, and proper monitoring so that further scale-up can be fast when it is needed,” he added.

Given the moderate strength of the forecast signal, I think the best options would be no-regrets investments, particularly aimed at high-risk areas still suffering from the current crisis, and proper monitoring so that further scale-up can be fast when it is needed.”

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source www.irinnews.org